The move in rates is just one factor of the macro backdrop that can drive spread trends, but one that worked quite well in past cycles and therefore worth focusing on in the current recovery phase.
Actually, this credit cycle was cut much shorter by unprecedented intervention from central banks and from huge fiscal support, ultimately leading to relevant differences with past experiences, outlined in this piece. Our conclusions are that these differences are probably going to soften the traditional historical relationship.
Read the complete whitepaper now at the link below
