A resilient but uneven backdrop favours private markets. As liquidity solutions and transparency improve and deal flow recovers, privates will increasingly compete with listed markets – but outcomes will hinge on sector selection, execution and capital‑structure design. 

Our base‑case macro assumes resilient growth, low inflation, mildly accommodative central banks and firmer corporate activity. Given current Middle East uncertainty, we see two alternatives: a short, transitory energy spike (up to ~3 months) with limited impact on private assets; or a prolonged stagflationary energy shock (~6–9 months) that would prompt a flight to quality – slower exits and a delayed private equity recovery, a tilt to secured direct lending in private debt, stronger demand for contracted, inflation‑protected infrastructure, and a focus on prime, income‑generating real estate. In relative terms, such a shock could enhance privates’ appeal versus listed markets by offering greater downside protection in stressed cycles.

You can now read the full whitepaper at the link below