UK Leadership Change: Economic and market implications

After the resignation of Boris Johnson as prime minister, what is your outlook regarding British political development?

With the economic situation having deteriorated considerably since the beginning of the year, it is vital for the Conservative Party to agree on a new leader quickly. A leadership election for the Conservative Party is expected to take place in the coming days/weeks. A more precise timetable should be announced soon by the 1922 Committee, a committee of Conservative elected representatives that oversees the election of the party leader.

Boris Johnson has decided to remain in office until the new leader is elected. Leaving without a successor would trigger an early general election, which the Conservative Party does not want due to unfavourable poll data. The Tories would like to appoint a caretaker PM (eg, the Deputy Prime Minister Dominic Raab) until the Conservative Party finds a successor. But the Conservatives cannot force Johnson out of office until they have elected a new leader. Indeed, a confidence vote was already held in June and the Tories currently have to wait a year to hold another one. Johnson could technically stay in power until September or October, but with no real room for manoeuvre. The Conservatives likely will want to act quickly to avoid this scenario.

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