The shift to an inflationary late cycle has been confirmed with greater conviction and a focus on higher inflation (and rates). Economic momentum is still decelerating at a global level but with tentative signs of stabilisation.
This translates into a cautious equity stance with a significant tilt to asset classes that are resilient to inflationary regimes with decent growth. Due to short-term uncertainties on the European economy arising from the war in Ukraine, equities are tilted more towards global value, quality factors and inflation-resilient sectors, with linkers offering a hedge. Base metals are the favourite commodities.
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