We amend the narrative of our scenario to take into account the consequences of the war in Ukraine. We increase the probability of our downside scenario to 30% (from 15%) to reflect the rising risk of stagflation.
The probability of our central scenario is moving down to 60% (from 70%) while the probability of the upside scenario is reduced to 10% (from 15%). We expect a repricing of risk premia across the asset classes in this new geopolitical and economic context.
You can now read the full whitepaper at the link below