In the National Assembly (lower house), the centrist alliance Ensemble (Renaissance, Modem, Horizons) represents 250 deputies, which is not enough to obtain an absolute majority (287). The absolute majority (289 votes in normal circumstances) is currently 287 because four seats remain unfilled.
Two motions of censure were tabled on Friday. One by the RN party (far-right, Marine Le Pen), the other by the centrist LIOT group. Only the motion of the LIOT group, presented as being “transpartisan ” can pass as it is supported by both the NUPES (left-wing alliance) and the RN parties. However, even if all the deputies of NUPES (149), RN (88), LIOT (20) and independents (5) are counted, it only reaches 262 which is not enough to obtain an absolute majority (287 required). It would therefore take at least 25 LR (right-wing, Les Républicains) MPs (out of 61) to vote for the motion to bring down the government. Both motions will be considered on Monday 20 March from 4 pm CET.
The adoption of a motion of censure would probably result in the abandonment of this bill. While, technically, it would be possible to continue with a new examination in Parliament (Assembly and Senate), politically it would be untenable. The failure of the “motions of censure” remains by far the most likely scenario. The pension reform would then definitively be adopted. However, there are still some possible obstacles before its effective implementation.
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