January 2022 was a record month for European value equity, in terms of its outperformance vs. growth. The market’s reassessment of central banks’ actions after their hawkish turn has driven real yields higher and benefitted value stocks, while growth sectors such as technology, which are more sensitive to interest rates duration, have suffered.
We see a continuation of the European value rotation in 2022, as the economic momentum remains supportive and we are entering a regime of more persistent inflation. However, the trajectory will not be linear, but while there might be pauses in this trend we do not anticipate a reversal. Instead, as the value vs. growth discount remains historically high despite the recent performance, we see room for a multi-year rotation, benefitting long-term investors.
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