All Asset allocation articles – Page 34
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White papersResponsible Investing And Stock Allocation
We analyze the portfolio choices of approximately 913,000 active participants in employee saving plans in France. Looking at the cross-section of equity exposure, we find that the inclusion of responsible equity options in the menu of available funds is associated with a 2.1% higher equity allocation by plan participants.
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White papersEuropean insurers: the case for going global in the credit allocation
In the hunt for yield, some years ago European investors started to allocate part of their credit exposure to dollar assets. However, many then put a stop to this diversification due to high hedging costs. In the context of the Covid-19 outbreak, the Fed cut rates to post-Lehman lows. Consequently, euro and dollar interest rates converged significantly, reducing hedging costs and making a case for broadening the investment universe from a European to a global base more attractive.
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White papersMarket Scenarios and Risks - January 2021
This month, we update the probabilities and narrative of our central and alternative scenarios, taking into account 4Q20 developments in vaccinations, fiscal and monetary policies, and (geo)politics. We have a higher conviction on our central scenario and we are raising its probability from 65% to 75%. We are lowering the probability of our downside scenario from 25% to 15%, which remains above historical levels.
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White papers2021 global outlook reassessed
As the Q420 is now closed, we confirm the “financial recovery regime” as our central scenario for 2021 with a higher conviction than in Q320. We expect better corporate fundamentals at a global level going forward. The rebound of EPS growth will eventually validate current asset price levels in the context of low interest rates. This explains our cautious optimism for the coming quarters.
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White papersFew Things Are Riskier Than Consensus
Investors should be concerned that market participants have begun 2021 with their views and positioning arguably more closely aligned than they have been for years.
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White papersPublic real estate debt: Facing today’s challenges
It is no secret that COVID-19 has had a particularly adverse impact on global real estate markets. But even as headwinds persist, there are opportunities worth considering within the public debt markets.
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White papersOutlook 2021
The heads of our investment platforms welcome the New Year with their views for 2021.
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White papersMacro Outlook Webcast: Looking to 2021 and Beyond, December 2020
Join Eoin Murray, Head of Investment, and Neil Williams, Senior Economic Adviser, for a lively discussion as they look to 2021 and beyond.
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White papersGlobal Insights – Outlook for 2021
Primed by continued global monetary stimulus and exuberant global fiscal spending, and further boosted by the fading of the tail risks that had plagued markets through 2020, capital markets are facing one of their best backdrops in years. 2021 could turn out to be the year that the overdue cyclical rotation, 10 years in the making, finally materializes and, importantly, takes hold. Make no mistake, there is still a high level of uncertainty going into 2021.
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White papersPortfolio allocation in times of uncertainty
The temptation to react to every headline, every market move is often irresistible. Never more so than in an environment that screams uncertainty. But experience shows that successful investors have learned to stick to their strategies, regardless of bright, shiny objects that threaten to distract.
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White papersMacroeconomic picture - December 2020
United States: after a record contraction in Q2, and an extraordinary rebound in Q3, we expect a significant deceleration in Q4, influenced by the new rise in Covid-19 cases and given the signs of a progressive deceleration in several economic and behavioral indicators. Next year’s growth outlook remains supported by the supportive mix of monetary and fiscal policy.
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White papersMarkets on a tightrope
Violent equity market rotations present a strong case for balance in portfolios, but an unusually complex knot of factors makes it challenging to achieve.
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White papersWrite hard and clear about what hurts
Economists have frequently used the alphabet to characterize the profile of the recovery. But one letter does not fit all. It is the duration of the epidemic which will ultimately determine the shape of the recovery. The desynchronisation of cycles should open the door to traditional geographic diversification.
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White papersMarket scenarios and risks - November 2020
This month, we amend the narrative of our central and downside scenario to take into account a larger than expected Covid second wave in Europe and delayed fiscal support in the US. We reduce the probability of our central scenario from 70% to 65% and increase the probability of the downside scenario from 20% to 25%.
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White papersMacroeconomic picture - November 2020
The US economy rebounded in Q3, exceeding our expectations and leading to a further upside revision of our 2020 GDP forecasts. However, given the signs of a progressive deceleration in several economic and behavioural indicators, influenced by the new rise in Covid-19 cases, we are more cautious about the speed at which the economy will enter 2021.
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White papersVideo: Why investors are turning to private assets amid uncertainty
In this video Georg Wunderlin and Johanna Kyrklund discuss the key challenges and benefits of using private assets, as identified by Schroders’ Institutional Investor Study.
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White papersPositioning for the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election: An Update
Undeniably, 2020 has been an eventful year and the fireworks are likely not yet over. Amidst rising COVID-19 infections and a stuttering economic recovery, investors are preparing for the U.S. Presidential election. While this election may be one of the most contentious in U.S. history, investors should remember that that once the elections pass, much of this noise typically quiets and risk assets are able to resume a trajectory dictated by fundamentals.
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White papersBracing for Winter, Looking Forward to Spring
“Anticipation of much lower levels of uncertainty in 12 months’ time—paired with the after-effects of unprecedented fiscal and monetary stimulus, the potential for another fiscal boost to come, and the Federal Reserve’s new, more dovish policy framework—feed into this quarter’s changes to our asset class views.”
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White papersMarkets scenarios & risks - October 2020
This month, we do not amend the narrative of our central and alternative scenario. Economic data confirm a slower recovery path in line with our central scenario and Central Banks maintain their accommodative stace. We maintain the probability of our central scenario at 70%, 20% for the downside scenario and 10% for the upside.
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White papersMacroeconomic picture - October 2020
Q3 economic rebound exceeds our expectations on GDP, prompting an upside revision to our August forecasts. Yet, the deceleration in late Q3 of several indicators is keeping us from extrapolating Q3 momentum into Q4. After some softening in 2020 H2, headline inflation will move along a gradual upward trend, stabilising around 2% from mid-2021 with possible temporary overshooting. As November 3 approaches, policymakers’ focus is shifting, with an increased risk that 2020 fiscal policy will become more diluted than expected, and with little visibility on the Phase 4 deal in particular.
