All Asset allocation articles – Page 36
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White papersIn the wake of first-quarter reporting season, the consensus is probably still too optimistic
At -12% for the S&P 500 in the US and -35% for the Stoxx 600 in Europe, first-quarter results were hit hard by the pandemic, even though it had hardly begun by the end of the quarter. It is therefore a safe bet that results will be even worse in the second quarter but also that they will bottom out for the year. Even so, the consensus still looks far off the mark for both second-quarter results and for 2020-2021. Consequently, the positive impact from reopening the economy already appears to be priced in by far.
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White papersThematics Views – June 2020
As part of their toolkit to support the economic recovery during the Covid-19 crisis, central banks could implement yield-curve control. Although appealing, the implementation and exit risks of such a policy counterbalance the benefits, particularly in the Eurozone. Moreover, the impact on financial markets could be significant since chained risk-free assets could temporarily leave risky assets unsettled.
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White papersNot Out of the Woods
The discipline of scenario planning helps us focus on what has been achieved, rather than what we hope will be achieved.
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White papersCross Asset Investment Strategy - May 2020
After closing one of the worst quarters ever for equity markets, Q2 started on a high note, with indices (S&P 500 and Euro Stoxx 600) recovering markedly from the bottom hit during the previous month. There is clearly a battle between bull and bear forces taking place. On the bull side, extraordinary policy actions continue to propel market sentiment (signals of virus-peaking in Europe and hopes of sooner-than-expected re-opening). On the bear side, deteriorating fundamentals from the earnings season and the sustainability of the mounting debt pile will be key risks. The tug of war between sentiment and fundamentals is just the first in a long list of battles in course.
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White papersMarkets Scenarios & Risks - May 2020
The potential easing of lockdown measures bring some light at the end of the tunnel. This is particularly the case in Europe where several countries are opening back shops, manufacturing capabilities or services. Data show that the worse is probably over in Italy and France for instance, but in the US, many states such as New York remain in an acute phase of the outbreak. Moreover, emerging countries are still at the beginning of the pandemic. Although it is too early to draw a conclusion, the low level of death toll registered so far in Africa gives hope for a more benign impact than feared. On one hand, these countries’ infrastructures will make the disease mo
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White papersReal estate: on the brink of transformational change
As the world copes with lockdown, our sense of space has been immediately and viscerally impacted. Offices sit empty, shops, hotels, pubs and restaurants are shuttered, and for many of us our home is now our castle. With markets responding in real time, what does the crisis mean for real estate?
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White papersMarket weekly – Time to add risk in multi-asset portfolios?
Senior investment strategist Daniel Morris and Denis Panel, Chief Investment Officer of the Multi-Asset and quantitative solutions team (MAQS), discuss the challenges to asset allocation in this volatile and uncertain market environment.
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White papers2020 versus 2008: What’s changed for European infrastructure debt?
Infrastructure debt is not immune to a severe economic downturn, but the global financial crisis has left the asset class stronger. We explain why.
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White papersContagion - Asset Allocation Committee Outlook 2Q 2020
As the COVID-19 virus spread around the world, sending markets into turmoil, our Asset Allocation Committee (“the AAC” or “the Committee”) met by video conference because governments were telling citizens not to leave their homes. These are extraordinary circumstances, and they make asset allocation decisions extraordinarily challenging and consequential.
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White papersMacro Insights and Asset Allocation
Erik Knutzen, Chief Investment Officer – Multi-Asset Class Strategies, discusses the impact of last week’s Fed actions and stimulus package along with how this decline is different than 2008 in terms of markets and investment implications.
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White papersMarket weekly – Some calm after the storm
As a semblance of calm returns to financial markets, Guillermo Felices, head of research and strategy for Multi-Asset and Quantitative Solutions (MAQS), and Dominick DeAlto, chief investment officer fixed income, discuss potential opportunities and the risks ahead for investors.
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White papersGlobal Investment Views - April 2020
Markets (financial cycle) are leading the economic cycle and will bottom out before the end of the coronavirus pandemic. However, they would stabilise once reassured on three points: the cyclical pattern of the pandemic, the tactics of fiscal and monetary authorities and the short end of the credit curve.
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White papersSafety First
After a big sell-off, many fear missing the rebound—but we expect more volatility and think the time for opportunism will come later.
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White papersAsset allocation update: credit upgraded amid fluid and uncertain backdrop
The ultimate public health costs and economic impact of Covid-19 are at this time unknown. Public health responses have weighed the human cost of intensive care units being overwhelmed and the number of preventable deaths exploding against the jump higher in unemployment, collapse in investment and demand destruction attached to social distancing. Governments have, understandably, chosen life over wealth.
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White papersUnique Disruptions, Exceptional Measures
As we argued in our previous piece detailing the Fed’s 100bps cut and increased asset purchases, although the Fed had unloaded countless rounds of ammunition, additional firepower remained.
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White papersPersonal Values, Responsible Investing And Stock Allocation
We analyze the portfolio choices of approximately 965,500 active participants in employee saving plans in France. Looking at the cross-section of equity exposure, we find that the inclusion of responsible equity options in the menu of available funds is associated with a 2.4% higher equity allocation by plan participants.
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White papersAsset classes views: Detecting Tipping Points
The report highlights the causal relationships between macro-economic factors and long term trends in asset prices, incorporating the latest discussions and analysis and drawing on insights from Amundi’s industry experts. We confirm our central scenario of subdued growth and inflation on a global scale, albeit leading to even lower returns due to complications from late-cycle investing. Recovery is likely as rates and profits normalise while central bank authorities stock up on the ammunitions needed to face further cyclical downturns.
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White papersTop Risk Map - February 2020
At the start of the 2020s, markets continued to be dominated by geopolitical issues, with short-lived Iran tensions at the forefront initially, followed by the news regarding a phase one trade deal between the US and China. Now, growth expectations are becoming the main driver of the market. That’s why the recent volatility due to the news about the spreading of the corona virus in China is higher than in the case of US-Iran tensions, as the epidemic could harm China (and global growth) if not contained soon (not our base case at the moment).
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White papersInvestment Phazer Update: downward trend is confirmed
While in the short term we do expect some temporary relief coming from positive economic surprises and supportive news on the trade front (should coronavirus impact be limited), on a medium-term horizon our economic scenario confirms the fragility of the profit cycle.
