White papers - all assets – Page 270
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White papers
Blog: China themes for 2020 – trade war developments (1/2)
What are the key themes to watch for economic superpower China in 2020? In part 1 of this two-part series, senior economist Chi Lo discusses the outlook for the trade relationship with the US, China’s tactics and the consequences for world supply chains.
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Enjoy the Twenties While You Can
Sooner or later, the decade’s returns will face pressure from populism, technology and climate.
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Credit selectivity at the fore in European high yield bond and senior loan investing
The European leveraged finance market is recognised for its potential to offer a compelling income advantage versus other, more traditional fixed income asset classes. Current market factors such as low default rates for speculative-grade debt and further stimulus from the European Central Bank are expected to continue to lend support to this asset class, which has enjoyed strong performance in 2019. Still, a prudent perspective would view the market as standing on relatively fragile ground in a period of low yields, lackluster economic activity and weakening growth outlook.
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Fixed Income Outlook: Keep an Eye on Systemic Risks in 2020
From a fraught geopolitical landscape to a global slowdown, the major systemic risks in today’s investment landscape are impossible to ignore. We expect such risks to contribute to persistently low and negative yields as well as to bouts of volatility in 2020. With bond yields near historic lows, can fixed-income markets generate solid returns without forcing investors to take too much risk?
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A U.S.-China Trade Deal Looms While Oil Prices Boomerang
Tensions are high around the world, global growth is low, while oil prices boomerang amidst the Iran clash.
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Time For A Flight To Cyclical Value In European Equity
When we look fundamentally at the risks and rewards in equity markets for 2020, we find that value o ffers better opportunities than growth as implied expectations are lower and therefore more attractive for value at this point. The performance of value vs growth has been on a downward trend for a long time, almost 13 years. In our view, the rotation towards value that started in September 2019 is likely to continue in 2020.
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Blog: A scenario analysis for China’s 2020 outlook
Although recent data from China points to a broad-based recovery, downside risk to growth remains since business confidence has not returned and liquidity has not bounced back solidly yet.
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Trade is not the only drag on growth
Entering 2019, our main expectations were for slower growth, easier monetary policy globally and continuing pressure on bond yields. At a high level, that is how the year played out. But the path to those outcomes has at times surprised us.
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Considering Broad Investment Implications Of Us/Iranian Tensions
Our senior investment leaders share initial thoughts on the potential market implications of Middle East tensions.
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Equity Outlook: Between Optimism and a Hard Place in 2020
Global stock markets rallied in 2019, defying political and macroeconomic uncertainty. Will investors be as fortunate in 2020? Since many risks remain, maintaining style diversity and finding investing themes that are detached from volatility drivers will be important ingredients for equity allocations.
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The (new) working world: promoting workplace well-being
This is the third part of a four-part series on SDG 8 – decent work and economic growth. In our first two instalments, we demonstrated how we are engaging with companies on their hiring practices and efforts in the shift towards fairer pay outcomes. Today, we progress to the issue of employee benefits.
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Sustainable agriculture: the economics of healthy soil
Where is modern industrial agriculture taking us? How can farmers respond? And what does all this mean for the financial performance of companies operating in the food and agricultural sector?
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Rich in opportunity
Events in emerging markets over the last couple of years have borne out our conviction that, over the long term, growth stocks in these markets will outperform value.
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A supportive environment for investment grade credit
The macro environment we face is one of low economic growth, low inflation, and loose monetary policy. That can be considered something of a sweet spot for investment grade credit. Corporate earnings are strong enough for the moderate leverage in the asset class, and investors’ search for high-quality yield supports bond prices.
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Emerging market debt rally set to moderate
Emerging market (EM) debt started 2019 at attractive valuations. This followed a nine-month slide as the US Federal Reserve moved to normalise monetary policy and raise interest rates, which naturally strengthened the dollar and increased EMs’ funding costs.
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Building on 2019’s green bond resurgence
In almost whatever country you care to mention, climate change and social inequality are exploding into the public consciousness. Extinction Rebellion in the UK or the Gilets Jaune in Paris are just two of the more high-profile signs. Yet in the financial markets, too, green, social and sustainability bonds are growing in number and sophistication.
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Quality is key in a slow economy
The outlook for Europe’s high yield market was getting darker as we moved into 2019. Third quarter earnings reports at the end of 2018 had mostly missed expectations, industrial activity was slowing and world markets had just suffered a sharp sell-off. Like most others, we were expecting returns for 2019 to be only moderately positive or even flat.
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Identifying 2020’s successful challengers
Europe is still growing, if slower than expected. And so, looking ahead, there are exciting opportunities – for example in challenger brands or new business models disrupting the old guard.
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Improving outlook for risk assets
The downturn in industrial output is bottoming out and corporate earnings – powered by rate cuts in the US and Europe – are about to accelerate.
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Managing the carbon footpath
Whether transport, energy or utilities, Europe’s infrastructure is set to play an essential part in the transition to a greener environment and better society. Just as new “green” infrastructure is being built, so too old “dirty” infrastructure providing essential services must be decarbonised.