All United States articles – Page 59
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White papersNowcasting the US Economy with Alternative Data
The pandemic has altered some consumer and business behavioral patterns in major and likely long-lasting ways, and it is critical to track these behavioral changes and assess whether they could last or whether there will be a return to pre-pandemic habits and patterns.
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White papers2020 US Election: What the Polls Could Mean for Policy and Markets
The field is set for the 2020 US presidential election, and markets are turning their focus to November’s contest. Of course, we can’t predict the electoral result for the presidency or Congress, and even the market’s reaction is unclear. However, given the stakes of this election, investors would be well advised to track a few key themes.
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White papersStyle Tilt: Growth Surge Reshapes US Stock Market in 2020
During the coronavirus downturn and rebound, US growth stocks outpaced value stocks by a record margin. Now growth stocks seem expensive, but that depends on how you look at it. So are these trends likely to continue—and how should investors position across different equity styles?
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White papersPositioning for the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election
For investors and markets still reeling from the global pandemic—and facing a protracted, volatile economic recovery—a new source of uncertainty is fast approaching: the U.S. presidential election in November. Historically, equity markets have posted below-average total returns during an election year.
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White papersFundamentals: the case for US SMID
Slow and steady wins the race. So goes the age old saying from the fable of the tortoise and the hare. But how does it apply to US small and mid-cap (SMID) companies? And is the asset class underappreciated by industry analysts? We explore the universe of US SMID companies in Fundamentals.
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White papersKeep Your Eye on the Loser
The election’s winner will drive market sentiment for the next several months, but the loser could reshape economic policy for the decade.
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White papersHigh-Growth U.S. Logistics Hubs: East Coast Industrial Markets On The Move
In the past decade, eastern U.S. industrial markets have gained considerable market share of the collective national trade volume. U.S. West Coast (USWC) port dominance has been gradually eroding as U.S. East Coast (USEC) ports capture more and more eastbound transpacific container trade (Figure 1).
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White papersWebinar – Nowcasting the US Economy
Join CME Group Chief Economist, Blu Putnam, as he shares insights using alternative data and nowcasting to monitor developments in the US economy.
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White papersTikTok on the Clock, Now Don’t Let Fiscal Stimulus Stop
TikTok may be the tip of the iceberg as the U.S. recommends tech companies remove Chinese apps from their app stores. Uncertainty around the next stimulus package may continue to weigh on consumer spending as we expect weaker data for July.
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White papersCautious Consumers Await Fourth Fiscal Stimulus Bill
U.S. politicians will continue negotiating the next fiscal package. The July employment report will likely be weak due to rising uncertainty, cautious consumers, and greater restrictive measures. Meanwhile, next week’s BoE meeting is expected to strike a bearish tone.
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White papersA Summer Setback in Jobs Doesn’t Mean a Double-Dip Recession
The odds are rising that July will produce a poor employment report in the U.S. Nevertheless, as long as Congress delivers a fourth stimulus bill that continues to support the incomes of those out of work, the U.S. economy should be able to continue its slow recovery.
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White papersChallenges and opportunities in US Commercial Real Estate
Coronavirus is disproportionately affecting different sectors of the US commercial real estate market, and driving major short- and long-term trends that have consequences for investors. Within major subsectors of US commercial real estate, we are negative on the outlook for retail and senior housing sectors, cautious on office space, ...
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White papersThe Case for US Equities in Global Portfolios
The post-pandemic market reality accentuates the attractiveness of the US stock market. Similar to the period after the Great Financial Crisis, we believe the medium-to-long-term landscape once again favors companies with records of large-cap secular growth, stability and defensiveness. These characteristics define a much higher proportion of the US market relative to the rest of the world resulting in what we believe may be a more optimistic outlook for US equities.
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White papersHow Long Can This Go On?
U.S. government debts may set new records, but investors should focus more on borrowing costs and growth rates.
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White papersInvestment Grade Credit: Whatever It Takes
After the historic rollercoaster ride IG credit took in the first quarter, U.S. policymakers seem to have won the day, at least for now—with their own version of the phrase made famous by former ECB President Mario Draghi: Whatever it takes.
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White papersWhy USD Fixed Income may look increasingly attractive to European investors
US fixed income can be a valuable source of diversification for European investors, but in the past the cost of hedging of the US Dollar exposure was high, neutralizing this benefit. The situation has changed, and the cost of hedging for Euro-based investors is much lower than in the recent past. Furthermore, we expect this cost will remain low.
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White papersRecord US Index Concentration Adds Hazards for Investors
US growth companies led the second-quarter rebound, fueled by the five largest technology and new media stocks, which now comprise more than a third of the Russell 1000 Growth Index (R1000G). Investors should be alert to the risks of high benchmark concentration.
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White papersBiden’s election momentum and financial markets
Joe Biden has a historically large lead over President Donald Trump in the polls, including in the critical electoral college vote, but that could narrow closer to the election.The slide in Trump’s approval rating was most noticeable among senior citizens and he has not led in a single major poll so far this year, though it should be noted that polls have proved unreliable in the past few elections. To put Biden’s lead in perspective, no prior candidate or President has seen a lead this large at this point of the race. However, Trump still holds onto slightly favourable ratings on the economy. A game changer could be the Democratic party taking control of the Senate, which appared unlikely early this year.
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White papers2020 Isn’t Only Hindsight
By any conventional measure, the current recovery and expansion phase of the U.S. business cycle is the longest in the nation’s history. This naturally leads many to conclude that the economy, and by extension property markets, must be “late cycle” with an inevitable downturn just around the corner.
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White papersU.S. Economic & Property Market Perspective Q1 2020
At the beginning of March, the U.S. economy was on pace to record another quarter of moderate but positive growth. Total employment had increased by 214,000 in January and 275,000 in February and the Atlanta Federal Reserve’s real-time model (GDPNow) suggested annualized real GDP growth of 2.5% for the quarter. Within a span of just a few weeks, that assessment was radically upended as more than 30 million American workers lost their jobs in the rapid shutdown of wide swathes of the U.S. economy in response to the equally rapid spread of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19).
