Outlooks – Page 42
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White papersWhen markets resist recession risk, macro analysis is pivotal
Asset prices are seemingly defying the global economic gloom, making analysis of macro indicators important in understanding how market conditions might evolve. In the latest quarterly edition of Simply put, we explain our current multi-asset portfolio positioning and the integration of a new, proprietary real-time macro overlay into our investment process.
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White papersCentral Bank Watch: To neutral and beyond
The Franklin Templeton Fixed Income (FTFI) Central Bank Watch is a qualitative assessment of the central banks for the Group of Ten (G10) nations plus two additional countries (China and South Korea).
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White papersSovereign Fixed Income: An update on our ESG scores
Country institutions and income inequality have contributed to various problems with food insecurity, as well as impacting their ability to deal with it. Templeton Global Macro take a closer look and highlight five country case studies.
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White papersFixed income investing: the active advantage, in times of interest rate sensitivity
Active fixed income strategies may offer investors numerous advantages over passive index strategies, providing enhanced risk-adjusted performance potential. Investors are still seeking risk-managed returns in the current high inflation and rising rate environment, and we believe active management for fixed income can better help investors pursue their goals.
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White papersDigital Assets: Investing in digital loans with data science
Digital lending platforms (also called marketplace lenders) have offered borrowers quicker access to credit, and often at better terms, than loans from traditional channels.
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White papersEconomic and Market Review: Key Considerations for Equity Investors
We put out a cautious Equity Market Outlook three months ago, and after a quarter of worsening economic data and inflation trends we are now even more focused on low beta and high earnings quality.
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White papersChina: This Time is Different
The Chinese economy is facing its hardest test in over two decades, and it will not come out of it easily.
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White papersGlobal Investment Views - October 2022
Geopolitical risks have returned to investors’ radar screens with President Putin’s escalation of the war in Ukraine. At the same time, inflation remains in the spotlight: the latest US reading was concerning, causing yields to rise while equity markets tumbled.
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White papersFast Filtering with Large Option Panels: Implications for Asset Pricing
The cross-section of options holds great promise for identifying return distributions and risk premia, but estimating dynamic option valuation models with latent state variables is challenging when using large option panels.
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White papersFiorino: Can Europe’s banks withstand high-pressure energy disruption?
As Russia threatens to halt gas supplies to Europe, Fiorino looks at the impact of the European energy crisis on financial institutions in the region.
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White papersA Fresh Approach to Climate Anxiety
Understanding the differentiated macroeconomic impacts of the climate transition can shape better investment and policy strategies.
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White papersStructural Change in Europe as Funds Take Market Share
In this Q&A, Adam Wheeler discusses the current state of the European private credit market, and how the economic backdrop is creating both challenges and opportunities for investors.
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White papersU.K.’s Mini-Budget Causes Major Market Moves
The U.K.’s sweeping fiscal package caused widespread disruptions—leading the BOE to intervene and restore market stability—which could lead to more hikes in the near term. Meanwhile, labor stats in the U.S. next week should help show just how far the Fed might go.
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White papersCentral banks split by fiscal packages vs inflation
In the latest instalment of Simply put, where we make macro calls with a multi-asset perspective, we analyse the market response to the UK’s latest fiscal stimulus and suggest this situation could be replicated across Europe as winter takes hold.
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White papersEvolution & Revolution: The coming Web3 digital asset revolution
Web3 creates the potential for commercial protocols that can deliver goods and services in a peer-to-peer manner that can be directly accessed by any user via an internet connection.
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White papersCIO views: what about an outlier scenario?
In the current context of interest rates being higher for longer, what would happen if an extreme situation played out to amplify existing trends? For instance, interest rates rose to 6% or inflation increased to 20% in a developed market?
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White papersBraving bear markets: 5 lessons from seasoned investors
This article was originally published July 15, 2022, and has been updated to reflect market conditions.
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White papersUpheaval in the global FX regime
The global FX regime of the last 20 years has been characterised by a distinct pattern of capital flows. At its core, Asian countries (mostly China) recycled their current account surpluses into USD-denominated FX reserves, in order to weaken their domestic currencies and preserve export-led economic models.
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White papersGlobal foreign exchange regime faces winds of change
Dollar strength is causing strains, even in developed economies like Japan and Britain. A short-term fix could be a Plaza-style accord to weaken the dollar. Reverse FX wars, with a race to strengthen currencies, are another possibility. Longer-term, momentum may grow for a multi-polar currency regime that pits China ...
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White papersNavigating the Emerging Markets Default Wave
Despite record defaults, stresses remain relatively low for the asset class overall.
