Outlooks – Page 3
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White papersUN antimicrobial resistance meeting to tackle superbugs
With the UN General Assembly High Level Meeting on antimicrobial resistance (AMR) taking place in New York in September, Ming Yang highlights the growing threat of superbugs, and explains how we engage with companies on this topic.
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White papersFed’s 50 bp Cut Kickstarts Recalibration
In one of the more anticipated FOMC meetings in recent memory, the Federal Reserve kicked its easing cycle off with a 50-basis point cut which marks the recalibration of U.S. monetary policy.
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White papersMacroeconomic and financial market forecasts - September 2024
Macroeconomic forecasts as of 5 September 2024
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White papersCross Asset Investment Strategy - September 2024
Topic of the Month - The JPY carry trade: what’s next?
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White papersGlobal Equity ESG, H1 2024 Report
To make ESG investing truly effective, investors must integrate high-quality data into the investment process. For our Global Equity ESG team, the EU’s Principal Adverse Indicators (PAIs) are a useful tool to support portfolio analysis and direct engagement with companies.
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White papersThe JPY carry trade: what’s next?
A series of weak US data in July questioned the market narrative of a soft landing and brought back fears of recession. This was the main trigger, although a hawkish surprise from the BoJ undoubtedly added fuel to what turned out to be an unusually sharp unwinding of carry trades funded in JPY. The amount of exposure of these carry trades was at an all-time high due to the low level of overall market volatility and the volatility of the JPY itself. So is it over?
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White papersModern logistics: Driving the new industrial cycle in Europe
Clarion believes the European logistics market is at a critical turning point and that to best capitalize on the nascent recovery, investors need to focus on building a modern logistics portfolio.
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White papersAddressing climate impacts and nature loss through real assets
The effects of climate change are a megatrend on a global scale, influencing the expected risk-return profile of real assets investments and the opportunity set for investors. The increasing frequency and severity of physical climate hazards, as well as nature loss resulting from changing ecosystems requires new ways of thinking about financial risk and return in real assets investments.
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White papersThe rise of semi-liquid secondaries funds
The secondary market in private equity consists of transactions where investors buy and sell existing private equity fund interests. In the first half of 2024, the global secondaries market had an estimated volume of USD 68 billion, which represents a 58% increase on the previous year’s 1H volume of USD 43 billion. The market can be broadly categorized into two main segments: GP-led secondaries and LP-led secondaries.
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White papersThe U.S. Election and Energy: More Than Meets the Eye
The presidential candidates have well-known policy profiles on energy, but how could they translate in the real world? The Biden-Harris administration has staked much of its political capital on the energy transition—curbing carbon emissions and encouraging the use of electric cars and renewable energy—while former President Donald Trump is known for his support of the fossil fuel industry and streamlining energy regulation.
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White papersBalance Is Critical for the Obstacles Ahead
Rising inflation may be behind us, but now a nervous market parses every data release for signs of recession. Regular readers know that, in early September, I hear the starting gun for the race to the end of the year. As we get back to our desks after summer breaks, focus turns to end-of-year portfolio results, and calendars fill to review the year’s achievements, lessons and progress, and to begin peering into the year to come.
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White papersUS election debate generates more political than policy buzz
The first debate between the two candidates running in the U.S. presidential race was a fractious exchange that shed little new light on policy details but is likely to be politically consequential.
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White papersRally broadening is underway
A mild US economic deceleration, interest rate cuts by the Fed and an improving earnings profile could further support the broadening of the rally outside the expensive US technology names.
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White papersGlobal Investment Views - September 2024
When central banks are cutting rates and risks of a US recession are limited, we remain disciplined and mildly positive on risk assets.
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White papersGlobal Emerging Markets Equity Outlook, H2 2024
In this report, we discuss noteworthy developments in emerging markets this year that have reinforced our view about the medium- and long-term prospects for the asset class. We see various tangible additional drivers of future growth.
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White papersFed easing: Fear rate cuts in a recession, not in a soft landing
History suggests that the Fed’s success in piloting a soft versus hard landing will play a key role in dictating the path for U.S. equities. For example, in 1985 and 1995, rate cuts supported strong equity gains as recessions were avoided, while in 2001 and 2007, even aggressive easing couldn’t prevent steep market declines amid economic downturns. Today, the absence of glaring household or corporate balance sheet vulnerabilities means Fed easing should be enough to prevent recession, and should provide investors some optimism for the future of the market.
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White papersWhat Fed rate cuts mean for U.S. equities: A historical perspective
Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell has all but confirmed that the rate-cutting cycle will commence at the next FOMC meeting on September 18. Financial markets are currently pricing in 100 basis points (bps) of cuts this year—potentially equivalent to a 50bps cut in September and 25bps cuts in both November and December—as the Fed gears up to ward off recession. Its success in piloting a soft versus hard landing will play a key role in dictating the path for U.S. equities.
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White papersWhy Japan Bounced Back
A huge market shock and a prime Minister heading for the exit—does any of what happened in August affect the long-term investment story for Japan?
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White papersESG Thema #17 - Investing in gender equality: Momentum is growing
Over the last century, women have acquired the right to vote in almost every country, have entered the job market and political bodies, and have gained their independence, particularly financial. Equal rights have thus been achieved in society.
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White papersGrowth of the East
The East’s economic power has been building for decades. Buoyed initially by Japan’s industrialization, the region was boosted further by the modernization of Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan, alongside the rapid rise of China.
