Outlooks – Page 114
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White papersTrade war clouds the outlook
The effects of the US’s multiple confrontations with allies and adversaries over its terms of trade with the rest of the world have overshadowed commodity markets throughout 2019. At the beginning of this year we anticipated relatively swift progress towards a trade deal between the US and China. But as the year progressed it became clear that this confrontation would last much longer than we had initially expected. We now believe it will continue beyond the US presidential election late next year, irrespective of which candidate wins.
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White papersOutlook 2020: The Beauty of Symmetry
− Global growth is finding its feet, but a powerful upswing is not around the corner: risks such a Hard Brexit (still!) and the US elections are impediments to a meaningful capex recovery.
− 2019 was in many ways similar to 2016; but 2020 will not be a repeat of 2017. We expect equity gains to continue, but in a far more muted fashion.
− Central banks engineered a stunning risk rally in 2019; they will be less active in 2020. But nascent efforts to make inflation targets more symmetrical will remain a risk-friendly force. -
White papersOur convictions for emerging markets in 2020
GDP growth should be stronger across many emerging markets in 2020 as Anjeza Kadilli explains.
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White papersReal Estate Outlook Asia Pacific – Edition 4, 2019
Rise in yield spreads to spur investment interest
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White papersReal Estate Outlook - Global overview – Edition 4, 2019
Returns slowing but rate cuts supportive of sector
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White papers2020 Outlook For The Us 10-Year Treasury Bond
In 2019, 10-year US Treasury bonds traded in a range of 1.46-2.78%, the fourth-widest range since 2010.
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White papersGlobal Investment Views - December 2019
In recent weeks equities rallied along with bond yields as investors reacted to the prospect of a US-China ‘phase one deal’ and fading global recession fears. The value of negative yielding bonds continued to fall, from US$17 trillion over the summer to the current US$12.5 trillion. While equities were previously overshadowed by the excessive gloominess on the global economy and earnings, markets rebounded after corporate results in the US and Europe met or exceeded low expectations, and as economic data did not show any material worsening. The mantra now seems to be ‘not so bad is the new good’.
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White papersGlobal economies in 2020 and beyond
Over the past decade, major economies have more than recouped the GDP lost during the financial crisis. Yet governments, companies and households have spent more time repairing their balance sheets than spending, while central banks have reverted to the tools that failed them in the past.
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White papers2020: Risks, Opportunities & Predictions (Part 1/2)
In Part 1 of our 2-part series, Barings’ investment professionals touch on topics from politics to trade wars to economic growth—and offer their perspectives on why EM currencies, international equities and EM local debt might outperform in 2020.
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White papers2020: An Inflection Point for EM Currencies?
With the financial crisis more than a decade behind us, the global financial system seems poised to begin re-leveraging. This process, which would likely take years to play out, would provide a source of funding for EM currencies, and represent a significant tailwind.
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White papersTen Crises We Avoided This Year
It turns out that we are not entirely hostage to immutable economic cycles or raging political intrigue. Sometimes people make good decisions in spite of our expectations. Sometimes, to be honest, we are just plain lucky and the dice land well.
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White papersThe Continued Democratization of Private Equity
Private equity is an asset class that has traditionally been available only to very large, sophisticated institutional investors. But this is changing rapidly—a trend we expect to accelerate in 2020.
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White papersCoping With A Changing Market Landscape
Our CIOs’ Global Investment Outlook stresses it’s important to be selective and not too complacent in 2020.
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White papers2020: The Road Ahead
From fixed income and equities to real estate and alternatives, Barings’ teams share their predictions for 2020 and views on where the biggest risks and most compelling opportunities may lie.
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White papers2020: Bold Predictions
Will 2020 bring with it the democratization of private equity? A wave of downgrades from investment grade to high yield? Barings’ experts share their bold predictions for the year ahead.
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White papersSolving for 2020; the key themes we anticipate will guide investment decisions in 2020
The heads of our investment platforms identified the key themes they anticipate will guide investment decisions in 2020.
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White papersGlobal Environmental Opportunities: transforming sustainable investment
Kanpur in northern India is known as the Manchester of the East. Located on the banks of the Ganges river, it is home to various heavy industries, including leather, chemicals and fertilisers. But, unlike its English twin, the Indian city’s economic heft brings enormous side-effects.
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White papersSustainable investing is here to stay
Sustainable investing was once viewed as a trade-off between value and ‘values’. Yet today, it’s something investors can no longer afford to ignore. What has changed? More granular data, more sophisticated analysis and shifting societal understanding of sustainability, as well as growing awareness that certain factors – often characterised as environmental, social and governance (ESG) – can be tied to a company’s long-term growth potential.
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White papersStay agile amid diverging scenarios
After enjoying stellar performance this year, investors will increasingly question whether the global economy will proceed towards a trade war-engineered recession moving into 2020, thereby ending the longest ever bull market. Or, if growth stabilizes at a low level, and potentially rebounds, the cycle could extend even further.
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2020 Investment Outlook - Be Agile To Cope With Diverging Scenarios
After enjoying stellar performance this year, moving into 2020, investors will increasingly ask whether the global economy will proceed towards a trade war-engineered recession or whether growth will stabilise at a low level and potentially rebound, meaning the cycle could extend even further. In our view, the retreat in global trade is causing a major change in the structure of growth, but does not point to a full-blown recession, especially at a time when cumulative loose policies are gearing up and a partial deal between the US and China is in sight. Monetary and fiscal policy combination, a prominent theme going forward, may extend the current cycle further. While the noise on trade-related issues will be high, a material escalation is unlikely given the upcoming US elections in 2020. However, the path for investors will not be linear. In the short term, market expectations for policy actions have gone too far and need to be adjusted.
