Outlooks – Page 110
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White papersWhere the Dry Powder Goes Next
Stuart Mathieson and Bryan High, portfolio managers for the Global Special Situations strategy, discuss the outlook for distressed debt investing—and explain how they’re finding opportunities throughout the cycle.
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White papersEuropean elections: not a game changer, opportunities from divergences
The results are broadly in line with what opinion polls had indicated, although with a slight “pro-institution” surprise. Key takeaways are, first, a decline in the votes for the two large political groups which are the social-democrats and the Christian-democrats or moderate right; these two parties had, since 1979, commanded a combined majority in the European Parliament, and this is now over.
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White papersSDG Taxonomy
We believe that companies which contribute to achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are capable of creating positive social and environmental impacts – and are also exposed to the drivers of future growth. We created the Hermes SDG Taxonomy to find investment opportunities directly connected to the goals by identifying impactful businesses poised to be the growth champions of tomorrow.
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White papersSpain: Forming A Coalition Will Take Time, But The Picture Looks Benign For Investors
The outcome: The ruling Socialist Party of Pedro Sánchez came first, however without an absolute majority in Parliament. The new, far-right, VOX party also entered Parliament.
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White papersRethinking the Fed’s policy framework
The dovish turn in March 2019 is unprecedented and inconsistent with the Fed’s remit.
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White papersIs Inflation Definitely Dead Or Simply Dormant? Consequences For Central Banks
Inflation never disappears completely. In history, there have been periods when it was dormant, but revivals have always been painful. What is striking at present is the inability of some countries to boost inflation despite low rates, liquidity injection programs… The BoJ and the ECB have made the bet (losing for the moment) that a ultra-accommodative monetary policy would quickly translate into a rise in inflation rates, while the Fed has opted for a “friendly” normalization of its monetary policy, helped in this, it must be said, by a fiscal and tax policy that has never been as pro-cyclical as in recent years (the Trump years).
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White papersGlobal Investment Views - May 2019
Equity markets have remained buoyant in recent weeks: the S&P 500 is trending towards an all-time high, the European equity market (STOXX 600) is close to last year’s peak and the performances of emerging markets have also been very strong.
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White papersItaly: no short-term confrontation with the EU, but uncertainty in the mid-term.
In the new forecasts for the 2020 budget and beyond from the Italian government (from the latest economic blueprint, of 9 April: “The Stability and Growth Path, SGP”), its economic projections come much closer to consensus than previous ones, pointing to weaker GDP growth.
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White papersPolitical Brinkmanship
Could U.S. political brinkmanship cause a government shutdown and technical debt default, putting the economy at risk in the fourth quarter?
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White papersFX Leadership
Can the U.S. dollar maintain its leadership of global currencies amid a decelerating economy and the China trade war elevating risk in the United States?
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White papersGlobal Investment Views: A sweet spot, but keep a sharp eye on the macro side
Risky assets have been in a very strong uptrend since the beginning of the year. The key question now is, where do we go from here? There are two main driving forces to focus on in the current context.
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White papersDebt Ceiling Back in Play
The twin threat of a technical debt default and potential government shutdown could resurface later this year, likely affecting equities and Treasuries.
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White papersValuations, BBBs And Policy Change - European Investment Grade Outlook | March 2019
Companies in most developed market economies have enjoyed years of super-low borrowing costs The European IG market has increased in size from a face value of around €800 billion in 2005 to more than €2.1 trillion by the end of January But what might happen to companies were borrowing ...
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White papersCross Asset Investment Strategy - March 2019
If an investor had woken up today after three months and looked at the markets, he/she could reasonably say that not much had changed. The year started on strong footing and risk assets experienced a massive rebound in the first weeks of 2019, erasing most of the losses experienced in one of the most awful Decembers in history. As a result some valuation gaps have been closed somewhat, though not exhausted. Markets switched rapidly from a “fear” to a “greed” mood. Catalysts of the renewed optimism have included the dovish shift in the Federal Reserve’s strategy, and increasing signs of progress in the trade negotiations between the US and China.
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White papersH1 2019 - Emerging Markets Charts & Views: Seek opportunities, but be aware of short-term volatility
Emerging markets (EM) started 2019 on a strong footing and, as a result, some excessive valuation gaps have been partially closed. Yet, we continue to see opportunities in all EM segments (equity, bonds in hard currency and in local currency) with a medium to long-term view.
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White papersA dovish ECB, a little relief for the banking sector
The European Central Bank (ECB) announced a new series of TLTROs starting in September 2019 and changed its forward guidance, with a commitment not to hike rates this year.
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White papersCross Asset Investment Strategy - February 2019
After a tough December, which led to an abrupt valuation reset, risk assets rebounded in the first weeks of the year, boosted by a market-sympathetic turn in Fed rhetoric and an increased optimism on trade negotiations. As the current reasons for optimism should be confirmed, we believe it is time to re-approach the areas of risk assets where the correction has brought value back, especially in emerging markets.
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White papersInvesting in the Low-Carbon Economy
Private capital has never been given such an important role in tackling climate change and de- carbonising the economy. As Philippe Le Houérou, CEO of International Finance Corporation (IFC), says, the private sector “holds the key,” noting that it “has the innovation, the financing and the tools.
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White papersTime to increase risk exposure: start with emerging markets and credit
The excess of pessimism at the end of 2018 resulted in a sharp decline in financial markets and renewed volatility. According to our analysis, market participants priced in twice the slowdown risk that economic fundamentals justified.
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White papers2019 Outlook: Expect a tougher climb
Slower growth. Rising rates. More volatility. 2019 looks to be a year that could be challenging for investors. Yet we believe the markets offer a range of opportunities, and we are finding a number of investment ideas for our clients.
