Outlooks – Page 107
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White papersBlog: A scenario analysis for China’s 2020 outlook
Although recent data from China points to a broad-based recovery, downside risk to growth remains since business confidence has not returned and liquidity has not bounced back solidly yet.
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White papersTrade is not the only drag on growth
Entering 2019, our main expectations were for slower growth, easier monetary policy globally and continuing pressure on bond yields. At a high level, that is how the year played out. But the path to those outcomes has at times surprised us.
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White papersEquity Outlook: Between Optimism and a Hard Place in 2020
Global stock markets rallied in 2019, defying political and macroeconomic uncertainty. Will investors be as fortunate in 2020? Since many risks remain, maintaining style diversity and finding investing themes that are detached from volatility drivers will be important ingredients for equity allocations.
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White papersIdentifying 2020’s successful challengers
Europe is still growing, if slower than expected. And so, looking ahead, there are exciting opportunities – for example in challenger brands or new business models disrupting the old guard.
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White papersImproving outlook for risk assets
The downturn in industrial output is bottoming out and corporate earnings – powered by rate cuts in the US and Europe – are about to accelerate.
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White papersManaging the carbon footpath
Whether transport, energy or utilities, Europe’s infrastructure is set to play an essential part in the transition to a greener environment and better society. Just as new “green” infrastructure is being built, so too old “dirty” infrastructure providing essential services must be decarbonised.
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White papersDemand grows for high-quality ESG analytics
After the buzz comes the reality. As we look towards 2020, the key responsible investment (RI) themes are already evident. Technology, regulatory changes, enhanced analytics, active use of voting rights and thematic issues (eg, climate change or the sustainable development goals) are key elements of this and are set to be the focus in the RI field.
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White papersLooking through the Brexit clouds
Looking ahead to 2020, we are full of hope for a conclusion to Brexit. As investors, our approach to property investment remains constant, mitigating specific risk to suit the economic environment. However, Brexit is clouding the investment landscape and has created a stasis across most home-grown markets
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White papersGlobal Investment Views - January 2020
As we approach the year-end, a look back over the past 12 months reminds us how unconventional this year of records has been. On the upside, equities rallied to historical highs in December and fixed income returns were also strong as bond yields fell. The combination of these trends enabled a traditional 50 bond/50 equity balanced portfolio for European to investors generate 15.5%1, the best annual performance in the last two decades.
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White papersTrade war clouds the outlook
The effects of the US’s multiple confrontations with allies and adversaries over its terms of trade with the rest of the world have overshadowed commodity markets throughout 2019. At the beginning of this year we anticipated relatively swift progress towards a trade deal between the US and China. But as the year progressed it became clear that this confrontation would last much longer than we had initially expected. We now believe it will continue beyond the US presidential election late next year, irrespective of which candidate wins.
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White papersOutlook 2020: The Beauty of Symmetry
− Global growth is finding its feet, but a powerful upswing is not around the corner: risks such a Hard Brexit (still!) and the US elections are impediments to a meaningful capex recovery.
− 2019 was in many ways similar to 2016; but 2020 will not be a repeat of 2017. We expect equity gains to continue, but in a far more muted fashion.
− Central banks engineered a stunning risk rally in 2019; they will be less active in 2020. But nascent efforts to make inflation targets more symmetrical will remain a risk-friendly force. -
White papersReal Estate Outlook Asia Pacific – Edition 4, 2019
Rise in yield spreads to spur investment interest
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White papersReal Estate Outlook - Global overview – Edition 4, 2019
Returns slowing but rate cuts supportive of sector
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White papers2020 Outlook For The Us 10-Year Treasury Bond
In 2019, 10-year US Treasury bonds traded in a range of 1.46-2.78%, the fourth-widest range since 2010.
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White papersGlobal Investment Views - December 2019
In recent weeks equities rallied along with bond yields as investors reacted to the prospect of a US-China ‘phase one deal’ and fading global recession fears. The value of negative yielding bonds continued to fall, from US$17 trillion over the summer to the current US$12.5 trillion. While equities were previously overshadowed by the excessive gloominess on the global economy and earnings, markets rebounded after corporate results in the US and Europe met or exceeded low expectations, and as economic data did not show any material worsening. The mantra now seems to be ‘not so bad is the new good’.
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White papersGlobal economies in 2020 and beyond
Over the past decade, major economies have more than recouped the GDP lost during the financial crisis. Yet governments, companies and households have spent more time repairing their balance sheets than spending, while central banks have reverted to the tools that failed them in the past.
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White papers2020: Risks, Opportunities & Predictions (Part 1/2)
In Part 1 of our 2-part series, Barings’ investment professionals touch on topics from politics to trade wars to economic growth—and offer their perspectives on why EM currencies, international equities and EM local debt might outperform in 2020.
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White papers2020: An Inflection Point for EM Currencies?
With the financial crisis more than a decade behind us, the global financial system seems poised to begin re-leveraging. This process, which would likely take years to play out, would provide a source of funding for EM currencies, and represent a significant tailwind.
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White papersTen Crises We Avoided This Year
It turns out that we are not entirely hostage to immutable economic cycles or raging political intrigue. Sometimes people make good decisions in spite of our expectations. Sometimes, to be honest, we are just plain lucky and the dice land well.
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White papersThe Continued Democratization of Private Equity
Private equity is an asset class that has traditionally been available only to very large, sophisticated institutional investors. But this is changing rapidly—a trend we expect to accelerate in 2020.
