All North America articles – Page 16
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White papersInvestment Grade: Stable Fundamentals with Hints of Wear & Tear
IG fundamentals held up relatively well in Q3, despite dampened sentiment and growing macro uncertainty. Spreads were unchanged, but may move wider before year-end.
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White papersIG CLOs: Strong Excess Return Potential, Lower Volatility
IG CLOs can offer investors the benefits of spread pick-up and lower mark-to-market volatility, largely due to underlying collateral performance and structural security. But above all, manager selection is critical—even at the highest-rated tranches.
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White papersCore Matters Investment Returns: A 5-year perspective
2019 has seen huge inflows into Fixed Income (FI) funds and outflows from Equities. From a medium-term return perspective this makes no sense. The formidable demand for safe assets reflects cyclical and structural forces (e.g. ageing). No matter the economic scenario, FI returns over the next five years are ...
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White papersThe Elizabeth Warren Moment
E. Warren is now neck-and-neck with J. Biden (27%) in the Democratic primary polls and far ahead of B. Sanders (15%).From her fifth-place position just six months ago, she has risen 21 points in the polls since then, while Biden has lost four points and Sanders, six. Bookmakers now put her odds of winning the nomination at more than 50%, vs. less than 20% for Biden and 6% for Sanders.
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White papersTrump Impeachment Is Likely, But Impact On Financial Markets Would Be Short-Lived
Impeachment process: The Democratic Party has announced the opening of an impeachment inquiry against President Donald Trump following revelations that he pushed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy to investigate the son of Democratic opponent Joe Biden. The impeachment process is long and articulated. An 80% probability that Trump will be impeached, followed by acquittal in the Senate, which would keep him in office for the remainder of his term, is our base case scenario.
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White papersWhy REITs, why Principal?
Since their establishment in the U.S. decades ago, publicly traded REITs have offered investors the combined benefit of commercial real estate investment along with the advantages of investing in publicly traded stocks. REITs have grown in size, impact and market acceptance around the world. REITs, REOCs, and other real estate stocks own or operate trillions in real estate assets across all major global markets.
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White papersInvesting in an era of heightened risk velocity
For investors navigating current market conditions—an environment where a single tweet can change the market direction and momentum—it is not just the risks themselves that are challenging but also the elevated pace at which risks can move from peripheral threats to portfolio impacts. We call this “risk velocity.” This paper explores the primary drivers for this phenomenon and potential asset allocation implications.
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White papersReal Estate Summary US Real Estate – Edition 3, 2019
Spreads return to normal, while property sector performance diverges.
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White papersThe Fed Cuts Rate, But The Market Expects More
The Fed cut rates, but the market expects more: As expected the Federal Reserve lowered its target range for the Federal Funds rate by 25 basis, and now the market anticipates as many as three more cuts by the end of 2020. We think that is too much. In our view, the Fed is likely to pause to monitor the effects of the rate cuts on the economy, before acting again.
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White papersInvestors Can Hold US Companies Accountable to Roundtable Pledges
Leading US CEOs recently pledged to redefine the role of the corporation in society. But will they make good on their promises? Responsible investors need a clear way to evaluate whether a company is really making progress by doing good for both society and investors.
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White papers
U.S. Loans: Challenged Market or Veiled Opportunity?
With loan and bond yields currently comparable, we believe—in a somewhat contrarian view to the market—there is a good argument for investing in loans, particularly in the U.S., where the economy appears to be marginally stronger than in Europe.
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White papersSustaining the expansion – the Fed cut and what it means for real estate
After weeks of anticipation, speculation and growing confidence on monetary easing, the Federal Reserve (Fed) cut its benchmark short-term interest rate by 25 bps at its July meeting.
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White papersSlow global growth compels the Fed to cut interest rates
The Federal Reserve has reduced its policy rate target for the first time since 2008. Economic data in the U.S. have been solid, but global growth is slow and a variety of policy risks hang over the outlook like dark clouds.
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White papersBack to basics: a contrarian look at cyclicals in credit markets
The US bull run is the country’s longest on record. But we are in the latter stage of the global macroeconomic cycle and warning lights are flashing. We remain focused on corporate fundamentals, asking which high-quality cyclicals could successfully weather a slowdown.
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White papersFixed Income: Upending the Conventional Approach
The search for yield trudges on amid trade and tariff clashes, and a credit cycle that continues to surprise in its longevity. In this Q&A, Michael Freno, Head of Global Markets, shares his views on where value can still be found and how investors can benefit from looking beyond traditional indexes in high yield, investment grade credit and emerging markets debt.
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White papers
Real Estate Summary US Real Estate - Edition 2, 2019: Demand remains strong and spreads reversed somewhat in early 2019
US real estate investors are entering year four of a period of relative calm, income-driven performance. Demand is strong. Supply should be monitored closely. Capital flows are supportive but not excessive, even as spreads show signs of easing.
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White papersHigh Yield: Oasis In Search For Yield?
Since early 2016, US HY default rates have experienced a sort of “mini –cycle”, peaking at the end of 2016. Nevertheless, the recent rise and fall movements appear mostly commodity driven: default rates would have remained fairly stable if energy and material sectors were excluded from calculations.
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White papersRedefining Value: A Modern Definition
Performance leadership in the decade long U.S. equity market cycle is and continues to be growth stocks. Value has significantly underperformed for several years. Principal proprietary factor timing models signalled an opportunity for value exposures in December and we believe it is time to discuss portfolio implementation to take advantage of the potential value opportunity.
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White papers
Is There Style Drift in Middle Market Lending?
Barings’ Ian Fowler weighs in on the supply/demand dynamics in the direct lending space and explains why looking at the middle market as one cohesive universe can be misleading.
