Capital markets whipsawed between a weakening US labour market and hopes that the Fed would successfully steer the economy towards a soft landing. Markets are optimistically interpreting the latest policy action, which could potentially boost consumption and investment. The other narrative is that the Fed would not have implemented a big cut without having apprehensions on the economic front.
Investors have traditionally thought of there being two primary investment styles, namely Active and Passive (or Indexing). But this binary view oversimplifies the new reality. Instead, it is better to think of investment styles as sitting along a continuum, where they become progressively more “active,” from index replication to unconstrained.
Prior to the onset of COVID-19, much had been written about the appeal of emerging market debt (EMD), touting the yield advantage as well as its lower correlation to other fixed income asset classes. EMD has underperformed since then, leaving investors in Switzerland and beyond to wonder if and how EMD fits into their asset allocation. After a difficult start to the 2020s, we believe EM debt is now poised to outperform as headwinds from sharp increases in interest rates and slower growth are now reversing course. Thus, the tailwinds from lower rates, higher growth, and improving credit quality are setting the table for positive EM performance going forward.