Latest White Papers – Page 285
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White papersA Moment of Solidarity for Europe
There is still much work to do, but the Franco-German-led EU Recovery Fund is potentially a very big deal for Europe.
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White papersPast Performance is Not a Guarantee of Future Results
When the world is changing so rapidly and profoundly, how can we trust the underlying data used in our investment models?
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White papersWhy June May Be The Most Important Month Of The Year
We’ll have a substantially better picture of how quickly global demand may recover.
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White papersTrajectory Monitoring in Portfolio Management and Issuer Intentionality Scoring
2°C alignment has become a major issue for climate-aware portfolio management. There are sophisticated initiatives aiming to predict corporate emission intensities from 2030 up to 2100.
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White papersEuropean high yield credit update
Credit markets stabilised in April; however, a wide dispersion of spreads means active stock-pickers can still find potential opportunities.
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White papersMay Macro Dashboard
While supply is coming back, the demand recovery remains unclear. The damage in Europe is showing up larger than expected a month ago, but high frequency data showed some signs of improvement in May. China’s economy is on the road to recovery, though the path differs by sector.
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White papersWhy ESG Is Outperforming The S&P 500
Over the past year, the S&P 500 ESG Index exhibited returns nearly 3% above the benchmark S&P 500. This is impressive given the objective of the ESG Index is not to outperform the benchmark. Instead, it can offer a sustainable alternative to the broad-based S&P 500, with similar risk and return, while at the same time achieving a boost in S&P Dow Jones Indexes ESG Score performance.
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White papersEM Short-dated Debt: A Diamond in the Rough?
COVID-19 and lower oil prices have led to indiscriminate selling across EM corporate debt, creating a potentially compelling opportunity in the shorter-dated, higher-yielding segment of the market.
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White papersCoronavirus – Weekly update – 27 May 2020
Exits from lockdown proceed with no major upsets / Stock markets remain cautiously positive / For now the ‘wall of money’ from central banks has quashed volatility.
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White papersIn the wake of first-quarter reporting season, the consensus is probably still too optimistic
At -12% for the S&P 500 in the US and -35% for the Stoxx 600 in Europe, first-quarter results were hit hard by the pandemic, even though it had hardly begun by the end of the quarter. It is therefore a safe bet that results will be even worse in the second quarter but also that they will bottom out for the year. Even so, the consensus still looks far off the mark for both second-quarter results and for 2020-2021. Consequently, the positive impact from reopening the economy already appears to be priced in by far.
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White papersMarkets scenarios & risks – June 2020
We maintain the overall pandemic narrative confirming the probabilities, assigned to the base and alternative scenarios.
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White papersMacroeconomic picture – June 2020
The coronavirus crisis has pushed the U.S. economy into a sharp downturn, with severe disruptions of businesses and mass layoffs. Unemployment has surged into double-digit territory (14.7%); confidence on both the consumer and business sides has plummeted; and consumer inflation has started to reflect the consequences of the lockdowns, with headline CPI falling to 0.3% YoY (1.5% prior). The timing and profile of the recovery are still highly uncertain, but we expect GDP to contract between 4.5% and 6.5% YoY, with inflation remaining significantly subdued, with significant risks of moving into negative territory during the year
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White papersThematics Views – June 2020
As part of their toolkit to support the economic recovery during the Covid-19 crisis, central banks could implement yield-curve control. Although appealing, the implementation and exit risks of such a policy counterbalance the benefits, particularly in the Eurozone. Moreover, the impact on financial markets could be significant since chained risk-free assets could temporarily leave risky assets unsettled.
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White papersIndia in 2020: Active Perspectives on India’s Evolution
In India 2020: A Vision for the New Millennium, A.P.J. Abdul Kalam and Y.S. Rajan detailed how India could become a developed country and one of the world’s four largest economies by 2020. Here, our team shares their thoughts about India’s potential.
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White papersWhy Have Chinese Stocks Held Up So Well?
China’s stock markets have been remarkably resilient. As the world’s second-largest economy emerged first from the virus-induced shock, corporate earnings downgrades were relatively contained while government stimulus was preserved for future use.
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White papersPreparing Chinese Holdings for Potential US Action
Tensions between the US and China are flaring up again, but tariffs probably aren’t on the table this time. With pressure mounting on Chinese stocks listed in the US, including those widely held in emerging-market portfolios, investors need to consider how to prepare for the mounting risks.
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White papersWhy a systematic fundamental analysis is key for Global Equities
As countries around the world plot their way tentatively through the coronavirus pandemic, we ask our Global Equities team: has their investment philosophy changed during the current crisis? And, when the dust settles, will sustainability be of greater importance to investors?
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White papersThe day after #4 - Inequality in the context of the Covid-19 crisis
For several years now we have argued that the social theme, and in particular the issue of social inequality, was becoming a major issue for various global economies and for investors, both institutional and retail.
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White papersMarket weekly – Healthcare, an investment theme for the coming decade
Both US and global healthcare stocks have outperformed their respective broader markets during the coronavirus pandemic. This is just the start of a long-term trend, says Jon Stephenson, senior portfolio manager for US equities and specialist for healthcare innovators in our Boston office. In this week’s podcast Daniel Morris, senior market strategist, discusses with Jon why healthcare stands out as the sector that may become the investment theme for this decade.
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White papersGlobal Investment Views – June 2020
The dichotomy between the false market tranquillity and the high level of uncertainty about the length of the crisis and its long-term implications is striking. In our view, we are far from being out of the woods and investors should stay alert as current market levels are still pricing in a ‘too rosy too soon’ endgame. The race between the three cycles will continue.
