Latest White Papers – Page 190
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White papersUK Leadership Change: Economic and market implications
After the resignation of Boris Johnson as prime minister, what is your outlook regarding British political development?
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White papersRenminbi’s rise will not challenge dollar dominance
A sharp economic slowdown seems to be looming in both Europe and the US, which would make bond markets attractive again, especially in the US. Conversely, the Chinese economy is expected to reaccelerate. International monetary system set to become multipolar as geopolitical factors are likely to prevail.
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White papersThe emerging markets hurdles
While not envisaging any systemic risk propagating across emerging markets, the macro financial outlook remains challenging amid growth concerns, still-high inflation and tighter global financial conditions. The current geopolitical environment, with its impact on macro and financial conditions, is making an idiosyncratic crisis more likely.
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White papersMarket Scenarios and Risks - July/August 2022
We keep the probabilities of our central and alternative scenarios unchanged vs. last month. The new wave of Covid-19 and stagnation in the Eurozone are adding growth uncertainty over the short-term.
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White papersMacroeconomic Picture - July/August 2022
United States: signs of decelerating growth are increasing as high inflation bites into consumers’ disposable income and companies’ margins. While we do not see activity contracting in Q2, risks to our projections remain on the downside. We do expect the US economy to grow below potential between now and yearend and to remain on a similar sub-par growth trajectory into 2023, as tighter monetary policy impacts the most interestrate-sensitive sectors of the economy.
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White papersThe ECB’s ability to raise rates will depend on the strength of the antifragmentation tool
The ECB is determined to tighten its monetary policy in the face of record high inflation levels. However, it is addressing that risk by cooling inflation down or pushing the economy into recession or triggering a spike in peripheral debt borrowing costs, as in 2012.
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White papersReasons for Optimism
Caution may be warranted during the uncertainty of the next quarter—but after markets have sold off so much, does it really make sense to be more pessimistic now than at the start of this year?
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White papersEnergy Fuels European Inflation & Rate Fears
U.S. labor demand remains strong but has likely passed the peak imbalance with supply, while the Fed has reaffirmed its prioritization of inflation over growth. Elsewhere, talks of greater hikes by the ECB followed inflation surprises in Europe. All eyes are on U.S. CPI next week.
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White papersCross Asset Investment Strategy - July/August 2022
The current repricing is a reminder of a regime shift in which stagflationary concerns are becoming prominent. Investors should move towards quality segments in credit and equities, and aim to benefit from the regional divergences that allow us to prefer US (over Europe) and now Chinese equities, but strong selection is important.
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White papersInto the Inflationary Slowdown
As inflation persists and recession risks rise, our Asset Allocation Committee sees more yield potential in fixed income and favors commodities for ongoing inflation exposure, but remains cautious in equities.
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White papersESG Thema #10 - There is no place like Earth: How investors can address biodiversity loss
Biodiversity, or the term used to describe all living organisms and ecosystems of which they are part, is declining at an alarming rate with now 1 million (out of an estimated 8 million) plant and animal species being threatened with extinction.
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White papersInsurers’ buy and maintain portfolios and sustainable investment
This article aims to explore how the inclusion of Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) criteria became a critical part of the management of Buy & Maintain (B&M) portfolios for insurers and other long-term investors and why we consider that the addition of new climate-aware guidelines such as temperature or carbon intensity should be implemented in all B&M portfolios, when possible, subject to a sound engagement policy.
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White papersNatural capital preservation and loan investment: financing positive impact, supporting sustainability
Natural capital preservation can only be achieved through better use of water, waste and energy. Effective management of each of these areas is needed to preserve a world with biological diversity and a stable climate. They are the core pillars of the health and sustainability of our planet.
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White papersA safe haven in a time of uncertainty
Royal London Asset Management (RLAM) has partnered with Fundrock distribution S.A, who will distribute RLAM’s products and services in the EEA. This follows the United Kingdom’s withdrawal from the European Union and ending of the subsequent transition period, as UK Financial Services firms, including RLAM, can no longer passport their business into the EEA.
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White papersAre Biofuels Really the Choice Fuel for the Future?
The most beneficial biofuels for carbon intensity reduction are biodiesels produced by wastes, such as used cooking oils and other fats, which are truly being recycled into energy. However, supply of these feedstocks is largely limited by the amount of food consumption.
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White papers*Sustainable by nature sequel: our portfolio biodiversity footprint*
Research has found that on a number of levels, nature is unravelling. This poses an existential threat to societies and economies – and by extension asset owners and investors. As an asset manager with clients who depend upon a stable biosphere, we have a responsibility to understand how our investments impact nature and how nature loss may translate into financial risks.
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White papersSwitching Gears for an Uphill Ride: Combining Capital Preservation, Return Potential and Liquidity for Official Institutions
In the second of our articles on working with Official Institutions, we ask whether portfolios can be built to withstand a profoundly changed outlook for the economy and investment returns without blowing through their risk constraints.
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White papersEmerging market debt: an active approach
Emerging market debt (EMD) has already broadened and deepened significantly in the last few decades and as the asset class has developed, it has become more appealing to a broader investor base. Issuance has increased, thereby improving liquidity.
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White papersThe ECB’s Trilemma
Are we seeing the start of another eurozone crisis, or can the ECB fashion an effective tool to manage volatile southern European bond spreads?
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White papersGlobal Investment Views - July 2022
Dramatic price action has taken place over the past weeks in equities and bonds, following hot inflation prints, central bank (CB) actions and rising concerns over economic growth. These events are a reminder of the regime shift, in which we are witnessing the resurgence of stagflationary risks and central banks trying to assert their credibility.
