Latest White Papers – Page 170
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White papersA strained German economy can be good news for Europe
The energy crisis resulting from the war in Ukraine has altered profoundly Europe’s economic performance and prospects. Countries have been affected unevenly, based on how dependent they are on Russian gas and oil.
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White papersChina: back to pragmatism
2022 ended in an abrupt fast-track reopening. In one month, China dropped most of its Covid-related restrictions, vowed to support the housing market more, and set pro-growth policies. We expect the Chinese economy to be separated from the global slowdown in 2023, accelerating from a low base. ...
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White papersCross Asset Investment Strategy - January 2023
An economic backdrop characterized by high risk of policy mistakes and strong regional divergences calls for a prudent stance in risk assets, especially now that markets are priced for perfection, leaving little room for any negative surprise.
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White papersFixed-Income Outlook 2023: Finding Equilibrium
2022 was an ugly year for investing. As central banks battled inflation, interest rates soared and recession fears mounted. Equity and fixed-income markets broke with convention and fell in tandem. Nearly every bond-market sector suffered historic losses, leaving almost nowhere for investors to hide.
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White papersEquity Outlook: Rebuilding Conviction in Stocks for a Changing World
For 40 years, steadily declining inflation and interest rates buoyed equity returns. That changed abruptly last year. Investors must now adjust expectations to a new macroeconomic and market landscape that will require a fresh mindset to reach long-term goals.
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White papersGlobal Macro Outlook - First Quarter 2023
After a year defined by inflation and the policy response to it, we expect 2023 to be a year of transition. The timing of that transition, however, remains unclear and is likely to be defined by the amount of damage done to the economy by this tightening cycle.
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White papers2023 Outlook: Long-term perspective on markets and economies
There’s a new reality taking shape in global markets.
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White papersEvidence of the low volatility anomaly
It is relatively easy to demonstrate the low volatility anomaly – the phenomenon that first came to light half a century ago showing that investing in higher risk equities is not necessarily rewarded with higher returns. Raul Leote de Carvalho explains.
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White papersFarmland and timberland rise up climate agenda
For investors looking to build portfolios that are aligned with net-zero objectives, farmland and timberland have never been so important. Timberland has the potential to be a net negative carbon investment, thanks to the ability of forests to remove carbon from the atmosphere. Farmland’s carbon profile also compares favorably to other types of real assets.
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White papersEscape From Flatland
A two-dimensional, return-and-volatility view of investments may not allow you to see important risks.
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White papersA downturn is ahead, but pinpointing when and where is the real question
Around this time last year we expected high yield markets to rebound after an August reboot. However, as at the end of October we were looking at our global high yield benchmark losing 15% from the start of 2022. Against this, we did correctly predict that the global yield market would outperform gilts and sterling credit, and that emerging market debt would be a key area of weakness, delivering returns well below the US and European regions.
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White papersCreditably building into risk positions amid falling markets
A series of bear market catalysts punctuated 2022 – from ongoing supply chain issues to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, political instability in parts of Europe, rising inflation and higher interest rates. While the economic environment would prescribe taking a step back to crouch and observe as the cycle plays through, government bond and credit valuations tell a different story, writes Gaurav Chatley, a Senior Portfolio Manager for European Credit at M&G Investments.
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White papersEvent summary: Experts eye index investing to tap China’s equity potential
The case for global investors to boost their allocations to China equities is increasingly compelling.
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White papersIG Credit Outlook 2023: Adding balance to portfolios
It has been a difficult year for fixed income in general. Stocks and bonds rarely decline in tandem in a calendar year, and 2022 was the only exception in the 45-year period dating back to 1977.
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White papersPensions investment outlook 2023: New realities, big decisions
Pension fund investors have endured a roller coaster two years. After a strong 2021, 2022 saw record losses on sovereign bonds and a major correction in equities.
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White papersESG Thema – Special COP15 – The Paris moment for biodiversity?
From December 7th to 19th, 2022, the second part of the 15th Conference of the Parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity (COP15) was held in Montreal, Canada. Whereas COP15 was initially supposed to take place in October 2020 in Kunming, China, it was postponed four times due to COVID-19.
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White papersGlobal Investment Views - January 2023
The bear market rally materialised, but strong US November job market data cooled the markets’ dovish narrative, creating a mixed picture for US inflation, given that the service components remain sticky. The Fed, for its part, slowed the pace of rate hikes, but reiterated that its job is far from over. We believe central banks, including the ECB, will be walking a policy tightrope, as risks of mistakes are high.
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White papersEmerging Markets Debt: Springtime in January?
With the inflation and geopolitical fogs around the world dissipating, and a monetary policy pivot potentially in the cards, 2023 is shaping up to be a promising year for emerging markets debt.
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White papersMore Complicated From Here
If you thought this year was difficult, just wait. The good news is that the extreme outcomes investors worried about through most of 2022 look less likely for 2023.
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White papersWhy It’s About to Get Even More Complicated From Here
This year’s choices were hardly simple, but economic policymakers in China, Europe and the United States face much trickier decisions in 2023.
