Latest Manager Research – Page 183
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Decoding the policy messages from China’s National People’s Congress
The National People’s Congress (NPC), which took place from 5 to 11 March, saw the announcement of a target of 5.5% GDP growth YoY for this year. While many market players interpreted this as being too aggressive, we believe it was a reassuring message.
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A Thematic Approach to the Fog of War and Hawkish Central Banks
Our outlook heading into 2022 focused on the strength of global growth, especially in the developed world. In the U.S. and Euro area (EA), we projected above-trend growth of 3.6% and 4.3%, respectively.
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Value Can Potentially Outperform Even if Growth Slows
We believe value is likely to outperform growth over the coming years—and threats to economic growth from inflation, rate hikes and geopolitical risks do not change our view.
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Uncertainty Increases
As events in Ukraine see geopolitical tensions mount, the lack of an easy route to a stable resolution suggests that the impact of energy prices may persist. At the very least it compounds the uncertainty from an already challenging growth, inflation and policy mix. Policymakers seem to be walking a tightrope.
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The Long View: Russia-Ukraine War Has Lasting Implications for Investing
When Russian president Vladimir Putin sent troops into Ukraine, he unraveled decades of efforts to cement peace in Europe after the Cold War. For investors, the new world order has shaken up broad issues that shape our analysis of asset classes and securities.
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Seven Predictions Amid the Rising Unpredictability
As the Ukraine War spirals toward broader geopolitical conflict, some elements of the outlook are already coming into view.
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A measured approach to volatile markets
Despite the uncertainty caused by the conflict in Ukraine, markets are still trading in an orderly, albeit volatile, manner with support and tentative buying at cheaper levels.
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Russia-Ukraine: a lot of bad news already priced in, but the outlook is deteriorating
The second week of conflict in the Ukraine was marked by additional market volatility. Equities are down across the board. The demand for safe-haven assets temporarily pushed the 10-year Treasury down to 1.7% before it retraced to 1.9% amid rising inflationary pressures. Meanwhile, gold has remained well supported, briefly moving above $2000/ounce.
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Short Duration High Yield: Replacing Rates Risk With Credit Risk
Short-duration high yield could be an under-explored option for investors who need current income to meet short-term liabilities, but cannot afford the interest rate risk that would accompany a search for yield in longer-dated bonds.
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Senior Floating Rate Loans: A Low-Cost Hedge Against Inflation
Headline CPI inflation in the U.S. came in at 7.5% year-over-year in January 2022, its highest level since the mid-1980s. Before the Russia-Ukraine conflict escalated, market participants held the view that the Federal Reserve was well behind the curve on rate hikes as the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury reached a near-term peak of 2.05% on February 15.
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Back to Basics: Commodities and Radical Uncertainty
When facing uncertainty in the markets, we find it helpful to frame our thinking within the four quadrants made popular by U.S. Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld: known knowns, known unknowns, unknown knowns, and unknown unknowns.
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Stepping up financing of renewable energy projects
Renewable energy generation has been a major focus for impact investors, who have been channelling private capital towards wind power, solar technology and other fossil fuel-free or sustainable solutions. While 2021 marked a new record for renewable energy capacity additions, the IEA has warned that the pace must double to reach net-zero emissions by 2050.
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Central Banks on Deck to Fight Inflation
The ECB was owlish—carefully hawkish. It further reduced asset purchases for Q2 below the €40 billion previously announced and left completely open the pace of asset purchases for Q3. This leaves room for great flexibility: the ability to hike or not in Q4.
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The Fed vs. Secular Growth: A Technology Conundrum
While the recent market turbulence has been characterized by a rotation out of highly valued growth stocks, the high and sustainable growth offered by tech companies will likely return to favor.
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What investors need to know about Southeast Asia’s solar energy boom
Prabaljit Sarkar, an expert in sustainable infrastructure, look at how solar energy infrastructure deals work, why the Southeast Asian market is booming and importantly, which deals are most promising for investors.
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Investing Through Climate Risk in Emerging Markets Debt
In this Q&A from the Nordic Fund Selection Journal, Kawtar Ed-Dahmani and Ashwinder Bakhshi discuss where they’re seeing the most material effects from climate change across emerging markets debt today—and what they’re anticipating going forward.
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Rising Rates - REITS poised to perform well
As is the case with most income-oriented stocks, REITs are typically hit hard when central banks begin talks of raising interest rates. This is due to investors views on how the higher interest rates will impact a REIT’s cost of capital.
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Months When Decades Happen
Europe enters this dangerous period on solid footing. Unemployment is at record lows. Wage growth remains subdued. Russia’s war in Ukraine adds a strong inflation headwind to the ongoing expansion.
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In support of Ukraine
All of us at Federated Hermes have been disturbed by the unprovoked invasion of Ukraine by Russia. As shocking images of bombs demolishing buildings in Ukraine’s major cities and harrowing tales of refugees – including orphans – seeking safety beyond the borders of their homeland flood our televisions and social media feeds, we stand with the Ukrainian people on the side of freedom, independence and democracy and condemn the Russian government’s aggression.
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ESG and inflation: An inconvenient truth?
When it comes to ESG investing, we need to talk about the inflationary elephant in the room says Martin Todd, Portfolio Manager for Global Equity ESG.