Latest Manager Research – Page 163
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White papersThe embarrassing legacy of financial capitalism: implications for investors
In the ongoing regime shift, investors have to deal with significant legacies stemming from the previous regime (the one initiated under former Fed Chair Paul Volcker), namely two forms of inflation: asset price inflation over the course of three decades and more recently inflation in the price of goods and services.
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White papersShifts & Narratives #20 - Stagflation and its roots in capital misallocation
In the ongoing regime shift, investors have to deal with significant legacies stemming from the previous ‘Volckerian’ regime, namely two forms of inflation: asset price inflation over the course of three decades and, more recently, inflation in the price of goods and services.
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White papersResponsible Lending: The Myth of the Perfect Investment
If building a sustainable bond portfolio sounds tidy and straightforward, it isn’t. The auto industry illustrates the difficulty of finding a perfectly sustainable private sector investment.
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White papersStickiness and science parks
This research article focuses on the stickiness of companies (their tendency to stay, or leave) on Dutch science parks, factors which influence this behaviour and possible solutions aimed at increasing the duration of stay of tenants.
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White papersIndia: Three themes driving growth
India is a dynamic urbanizing economy with a rapidly expanding middle class. Read more about this vast economy and why it is an attractive investment destination.
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White papersEMD resilience to be put to the test—again
This paper provides an update on performance and drivers for the sovereign emerging market debt (EMD) asset class this year. The final sections lay out the main improvements and strengths that we believe will allow EMD to navigate these troubled times, proving the asset class’s resilience again. These include improving balance of payments due to high commodity prices, decisive central bank policy, robust growth outlooks and better managed debt stocks.
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White papersBuilt to last: Investing in listed infrastructure
Given high inflation and volatile markets, investors seeking to reduce risk while maintaining attractive total return potential are increasingly allocating to listed infrastructure—which, thanks to its unique characteristics, has substantially outperformed the broad equity market year-to-date.
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White papersThe impact of the Ukraine crisis on climate change
There are no doubt multiple factors that led to Russia’s decision to invade Ukraine. One was likely to have been a calculation that European dependence on Russian fossil fuels – particularly gas – would limit the severity of any resulting sanctions on Russia from the West.
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White papersFixed Income: High Yield is not a meme stock
Brandywine Global: With defaults so low and fundamentals, such as interest coverage and leverage, still strong, we believe the case for high yield is even more compelling today.
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White papersFood innovation: Investing to feed our future
Perspectives from our specialist investment managers on the challenge of feeding a growing global population in the midst of climate change, geopolitical shocks, and uncertainty and the critical need for innovation in food and agricultural technologies.
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White papersThe Two-Way Market Persists
In a webinar a few weeks back, my colleagues, Joe Amato and Erik Knutzen, and I sought to size up the market environment of ongoing volatility and selloffs, pressure from the Federal Reserve, and fears about inflation and growth.
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White papersOnly innovation in fiscal and monetary rules will make the Eurozone viable
As crises unfold, structural and governance issues tend to become more and more important. And the objectives of economic policy are increasingly ambitious, both on the fiscal and monetary fronts. The governments and the ECB are in an impossible situation.
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White papersA look under the surface of the first quarter earnings season
The excellent results of the first quarter also conceal weaknesses. Excluding energy, they remain positive but much less flattering, and companies are wondering about the future. Revisions are now expected to be on the downside, which does not rule out counter-trend rallies. Markets’ behaviour could be tricky. Remain cautious.
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White papersMarket Scenarios and Risks - June 2022
We keep the probabilities of our central and alternative scenario unchanged versus last month but amend the narrative to take into account the evolving geopolitical situation (see Ukraine crisis tree).The new wave of Covid-19 in China and stagnation in the Euro-area are adding growth uncertainty over the short-term.
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White papersMacroeconomic Picture - June 2022
United States: After the contraction in Q1 (resulting from an outsized detraction from net exports and a payback from the surge in inventories in Q4, not from weak demand) we expect sequential growth to pick up from Q2 and stabilise around moderate rates of growth consistent with reaching 1.6% in Q4/Q4 22 and 1.5% in Q4/Q4 23.
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White papersJPY: Structurally weak, cyclically blessed
Structural headwinds are strong for the yen, setting a fundamental background for the currency to stay weak. Yet a recessionary environment is a cyclical blessing – peaking growth and rates prove that the JPY is among the cleanest diversifiers – and officials may have lost their appetite for currency devaluation.
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White papersDisruptive technology – Maintaining course in volatile markets
The high-tech sector has seen a dramatic correction and high market volatility in recent months. We believe it is now appropriate to review the outlook for disruptive tech thematic investing. We are confident in the long-term outlook for this secular growth theme as we see many opportunities to invest in companies that are leading – and benefiting from – digital transformation.
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White papersSwiss real estate in an inflationary environment
After decades of continuous low inflation levels, real estate investors are experiencing an environment of elevated consumer price growth all around the world. In this publication, we underline our inflation and interest rate expectations and discuss the potential implications of this complex macroeconomic environment for the performance of Swiss real estate investments.
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White papersCross Asset Investment Strategy - June 2022
The repricing of a more aggressive Fed stance has been brutal as the 10Y UST yield temporarily reached the 3% threshold, falling close to 2.75% recently on economic growth concerns. We think investors should move towards neutrality on duration in the US and Europe, whereas in credit, they should focus on quality and stay cautious on higher-risk segments in Europe.
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White papersThe Path From the Peak
With inflation still above-trend, prices rising for necessities, central banks tightening policy, and fallout from China’s zero-COVID policy, we will watch for a sharp slowdown in growth over the 12–18 month outlook.
