Investment grade private credit enters 2026 with steady supply and healthy investor demand, creating a constructive yet selective outlook. Elevated rates and shifting sector dynamics underscore the need for disciplined underwriting and a focus on risk-adjusted opportunities.
For all the shifts in macroeconomic risk factors that swayed market sentiment last year, most credit markets delivered on expectations for carry-driven returns in 2025. Emerging market (EM) debt was an exception, recording strong excess returns in addition to carry driven by supportive market technicals along with fundamentals that have withstood macroeconomic risks.
AI-related bond issuance is surging, reshaping the opportunity set for fixed-income investors. In addition to robust U.S. growth, constrained inflation, and an attractive opportunities beyond the U.S., investors must also navigate greater tail risks, more complex financing structures, and rising political uncertainty around AI and energy use.