The year is drawing to a close with most risk assets in positive territory, and global stocks and metal prices seeing multiple highs. Even the longest US government shutdown in history didn’t curb market enthusiasm. We think markets have been looking through the weakness in the belief that monetary and fiscal policy levers will be available for support, that profitability of AI investments is almost a given, and that corporate earnings will continue to exceed expectations, following a strong results season in the US, somewhat less so in Europe. The tariffs’ impact on consumption is also largely being ignored.
The boom years are over. Beijing’s crackdown on low-grade lithium, loss-making battery plants and fragmented EV brands signals a new era of discipline. For investors, the question is: who thrives when growth gets disciplined?