“President Trump’s approach to trade and global alliances may be a wake up call for Europe. The region is signalling a clear and a historical shift, which will require target measures to boost growth efficiently.”
Real interest rates have been on a secular decline since the mid-1980s but have corrected sharply higher since the Covid pandemic, higher inflation and the end of central banks’ Quantitative Easing (QE). Now, public debt is much higher and there are new demands for funding (e.g., for defence and net zero ambitions), which should argue for structurally higher long-term interest rates.
Trade finance – short-term loans to facilitate physical cross-border transactions – plays a vital role in facilitating global trade flows. It is estimated that 80% of world trade is dependent on some form of financing. This can be attributed to tighter credit conditions for obtaining alternative sources of capital. In this paper, we outline why more investors are turning towards this asset class as a diversifier in their portfolios.