Fixed Income – Page 8
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White papersPortfolio construction themes in these times of inflation
Investors seeking to put this bear market behind them aren’t out of the woods yet. Hopes that inflation might peak quickly, that the U.S. Federal Reserve would pivot, and that the global economy could emerge unscathed — all have diminished.
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Fixed Income Views: Paradigm shift
Global central banks adapt to a new reality as they continue to raise interest rates to fight inflation and bring it under control. Fixed Income Views explores the implications for investors as they prepare to be challenged by rising rates and higher volatility.
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Still No End In Sight
The hawks fluttered their wings this week, leading yields to rise, equities to fall, and markets to reprice rate expectations. The BoE is more concerned about growth, while the Fed has a singular focus on inflation. China and Japan remain accommodative, watching PMIs next week.
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Frontloading
The global economy remained largely resilient in the first half of 2022, despite war in Eastern Europe, commodity shortages, and inflation. However, this is leading most major central banks to turn increasingly hawkish and frontload rate hikes which should weigh on growth.
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Hold the Inflation Victory Lap
Inflation still appears to be the biggest source of potential volatility in the market, and we think that’s because it will remain the dominant economic story for the foreseeable future.
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You Will Remember The 21st Day of September
Data and expectations continue to drive markets, which have priced in a 75bp hike from the FOMC, though some foresee more; expect 50bps from the BoE given concerns about inflation and energy prices. In China, mounting worries about growth and weak trade are elevating concerns.
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Innovation in ESG municipal bond investing
Nuveen developed an proprietary leading ESG scoring methodology that identifies municipal issuers that are ESG leaders relative to their peers. Using a comprehensive approach, Nuveen seeks to helps clients achieve the investment benefits of municipal fixed income while aligning with their values and helping to provide positive outcomes for our communities.
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Can U.S. midterm elections move the market? 5 charts to watch
In a year when soaring inflation, the war in Ukraine and a bear market have commanded headlines, the U.S. midterm elections risked becoming an afterthought. But now the election is coming back into focus. And with good reason.
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ECB meeting: bold rate hike; watch out for more to come
What is your take on the September ECB meeting and what could the next steps be?
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Macroeconomic Picture - September 2022
United States: The H1 contraction will be followed by a protracted period of sub-par growth, but the ongoing deceleration is so far not yet due to Fed tightening; cracks are appearing in an apparently strong labour market, and we expect the lack of productivity to cause a labour market correction.
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Market Scenarios and Risks - September 2022
We have reviewed the content and probabilities of our scenarios. First of all, we have included in our central scenario some of the risks that are materialising (e.g. stagflation in Europe) and that were previously included in our downside scenario.
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Rational inattention at the core of central bank strategy
The origins of inflation are not always well understood. While some economists had warned of impending inflation as early as last year, few had anticipated the dramatic shift in spending from services to goods and the effects of such a shift. The fact that inflation expectations remain subdued is likely due to rational inattention. In the absence of monetary tightening, we believe that inflation expectations would inevitably get de-anchored.
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Portfolio Diversification Is Key To Weathering the Storm
In this Q&A, Ian Fowler discusses the benefits diversification and warns against an over-reliance on upper mid-market deals.
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Cross Asset Investment Strategy - September 2022
While a global recession may be avoided, we are likely to see growth deceleration and high inflation (higher cost of living) along with regional divergences. Thus, investors should consider moving to a more cautious stance on equities particularly in Europe, but retain preference for US and for China, although to a lower extent on China.
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PM Spotlight: The Art and Science of Investing
In this inaugural edition of PM Spotlight, we sit down with Henrietta Pacquement, CFA, Senior Portfolio Manager and Head of Global Fixed Income, to profile her unique background and leadership in her field of expertise.
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Macro Matters - There will be pain
Macro Matters provides a concise, comprehensive look at macroeconomic themes that matter to clients.
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Fixed Income Insights (Canada Edition) - September 2022
Global government bonds sold off in August, notably in long-dated maturities, as G7 central banks maintained their aggressive inflation-fighting stances and negated speculation of an imminent pivot, despite the risk of recession. Canadian high yield credits’ flat returns modestly outperformed negative returns elsewhere.
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Fixed Income Insights (China Edition) - September 2022
Chinese government bonds performed defensively, as the PBoC cut its key interest rates in August, bucking the trend of rate hikes elsewhere. The weaker yuan vs USD eroded returns for USD-based investors. Chinese $ high yield credit bounced back strongly from YTD losses, despite higher US Treasury yields.
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Fixed Income Insights - September 2022
Global government bonds sold off in August, notably in long-dated maturities, as G7 central banks maintained their aggressive inflation-fighting stances and negated speculation of an imminent pivot, despite the risk of recession. Strong US dollar appreciation eroded USD-based overseas returns.
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Rising yields put bond markets back on a road to normal
Rising inflation and slowing global growth are two dominant themes casting a pall over the current market environment. With increasing geopolitical uncertainty, tightening monetary policy, supply chain challenges and higher commodity prices at play, a period of global stagflation could potentially be on the horizon.
