Fixed Income – Page 45
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White papersCan U.S. midterm elections move the market? 5 charts to watch
In a year when soaring inflation, the war in Ukraine and a bear market have commanded headlines, the U.S. midterm elections risked becoming an afterthought. But now the election is coming back into focus. And with good reason.
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White papersECB meeting: bold rate hike; watch out for more to come
What is your take on the September ECB meeting and what could the next steps be?
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White papersMacroeconomic Picture - September 2022
United States: The H1 contraction will be followed by a protracted period of sub-par growth, but the ongoing deceleration is so far not yet due to Fed tightening; cracks are appearing in an apparently strong labour market, and we expect the lack of productivity to cause a labour market correction.
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White papersMarket Scenarios and Risks - September 2022
We have reviewed the content and probabilities of our scenarios. First of all, we have included in our central scenario some of the risks that are materialising (e.g. stagflation in Europe) and that were previously included in our downside scenario.
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White papersRational inattention at the core of central bank strategy
The origins of inflation are not always well understood. While some economists had warned of impending inflation as early as last year, few had anticipated the dramatic shift in spending from services to goods and the effects of such a shift. The fact that inflation expectations remain subdued is likely due to rational inattention. In the absence of monetary tightening, we believe that inflation expectations would inevitably get de-anchored.
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White papersPortfolio Diversification Is Key To Weathering the Storm
In this Q&A, Ian Fowler discusses the benefits diversification and warns against an over-reliance on upper mid-market deals.
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White papersCross Asset Investment Strategy - September 2022
While a global recession may be avoided, we are likely to see growth deceleration and high inflation (higher cost of living) along with regional divergences. Thus, investors should consider moving to a more cautious stance on equities particularly in Europe, but retain preference for US and for China, although to a lower extent on China.
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White papersRising yields put bond markets back on a road to normal
Rising inflation and slowing global growth are two dominant themes casting a pall over the current market environment. With increasing geopolitical uncertainty, tightening monetary policy, supply chain challenges and higher commodity prices at play, a period of global stagflation could potentially be on the horizon.
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White papersHawks Are Gaining Speed
Here come the rate hikes. The upward surprise in euro area inflation and Jay Powell’s speech in Jackson Hole confirmed the ECB and Fed are both likely looking at 75bp hikes this month, and markets increased expectations as a result. Meanwhile, China reacts to new lockdown measures.
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White papersAre we entering the zone of oversold credit?
With the Aperture Investors SICAV - Credit Opportunities Fund reaching its three year anniversary this August, Simon Thorp looks ahead and explains why long credit stands out in the current environment.
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White papersThe impact of credit risk for pension plans engaging with CDI
Cashflow-driven investing (CDI) has gained significant traction in recent years as pension plans have successfully de-risked and strengthened their balance sheets over the last decade. Increasing numbers of plans are able to allocate significant proportions (potentially all of their assets) to fixed income like assets so that cashflow income closely matches expected liability payment, thus providing a simpler hedge and reducing the complexity of portfolios. Investment products, strategies and asset classes have developed to facilitate this approach.
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White papersAsset Class Returns Forecasts - Q3 2022
A combination of sustained inflation and mounting recession fears, interlinked with the geopolitical situation, are the main drivers affecting the current and forward-looking macro environments. The bulk of the uncertainty is in the short to medium term.
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White papersData Delivers Mixed Messages Amid Slowdown
Mixed data is fueling debate about underlying economic strength and recession odds. Meanwhile, markets this week await Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole. Elsewhere, Chinese policymakers took steps to address rising risks to the outlook. Eyes will be on Nord Stream 1 next week.
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White papersGeopolitics vs. the race to net zero
The Ukraine crisis is a horrendous tragedy and the war will have a considerable impact on the European and global economy. It has brought sharply into focus the fragility of supply chains and energy security - which has manifested in runaway inflation.
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White papersThe sleeping giant: Unlocking sustainable finance
Many banks are failing to realise their impact potential, thus missing out on commercial opportunity in the real economy
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White papersGlobal Macro Outlook - Third Quarter 2022
The global economic outlook deteriorated sharply in the second quarter and markets are increasingly concerned that higher rates will lead to a recession. This outcome isn’t a certainty, but the probability of slower or negative growth has increased materially as inflation has stayed high.
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White papersGlobal Investment Views - August 2022
The first sequence of the double bear markets (in equities and long-term bonds) adjusting to the end of easy money and rising inflation is almost complete. Now, the narrative has changed, with a shift in focus to deceleration of growth vs fears of inflation.
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White papersJuly 26-27 FOMC Review: Maintaining a Hawkish Course
The Federal Reserve hiked the fed funds rate by 75bp to 2.25-2.50%, the second consecutive 75bp rate hike. The Fed rate decision was widely expected. With today’s rate hike, the fed funds rate is within the 2 to 3% range of estimates of the long-term “neutral” rate. However, as Chair Powell reminded us during his press conference, policy needs to go beyond neutral into restrictive territory this year in order to reduce inflation.
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White papersHigh Yield: When Technicals Create Opportunity
Challenging technical conditions have caused high yield spreads to widen beyond what fundamentals would suggest, potentially setting the stage for strong performance in loans and senior secured bonds, in particular.
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White papersThree Reasons to Consider CLOs
The combination of wider spreads, strong structural protections and low interest-rate sensitivity presents a potentially compelling case for CLOs.
