Fixed Income – Page 18
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White papersBuying bonds: January macro and asset class views
2024 marked the fourth consecutive year of rising US yields, for the first time since the early 80’s. We have been patient in recent years going overweight duration in our multi-asset portfolios as we have persistently viewed the risks to US nominal growth relative to consensus expectations as skewed to the upside.
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White papersGlobal Macro Outlook: First Quarter 2025
We expect all major economies to continue to expand, with the US out front again, as well as positive momentum for business investment. The question for investors will be to what degree US outperformance will extend to the financial markets. Global headwinds are likely, especially in the trade channel in light of proposed tariffs and immigration policies, but our outlook remains generally positive.
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White papersEuropean Fixed-Income Outlook 2025: Adversity, Uncertainty, Opportunity
European bond markets are climbing a mountain of worry. Despite the risks, history suggests a positive outcome.
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White papersBond yields on the rise
Bond yields started the year with strong upward moves, and reached close to the highs seen in April last year. This latest upward trend, which has been evident from September amid Trump’s election campaign and his eventual victory, has been partly driven by resilience in the US economy.
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White papersFixed-Income Outlook 2025: Fertile Ground
Continued volatility, falling yields, and other expectations for the year ahead, plus seven strategies to take advantage.
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White papersEM Local Debt: Time to Shift the Perspective?
EM local debt has historically offered higher yields than the comparable U.S. risk-free rate, and recently has begun to exhibit more stability as well—which presents a compelling case for investors.
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White papersShort Duration Q4 2024 Recap, Portfolio Actions & Outlook
Our latest Short Duration Quarterly Commentary recaps Q4 2024 and shares our sector outlook for short duration bonds.
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White papersQ4 2024 Emerging Markets Review and Outlook
Our current Emerging Markets Review and Outlook recaps Q4 in emerging market debt and looks ahead to 2025, with the Federal Reserve’s path forward unclear and markets bracing for the uncertainty of Trump administration policy changes.
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White papers4Q24 Investment Grade Corporate Market Review and Outlook
Our “Q4 Investment Grade Corporate Market Review & Outlook” examines how Treasury yields and corporate spreads reacted to a busy quarter of market-moving events, highlighted by President Trump’s election. We chart portfolio attribution for Q4 and 2024, then look ahead to catalysts that could push credit spreads wider in 2025.
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White papersPensions find new sources of long-term cash flows
An upside of higher rates for pension schemes is a reduction in the value of future liabilities. Many defined benefit (DB) pensions in Europe are taking advantage of this to derisk portfolios by locking-in higher-yielding, public investment grade fixed income assets, according to Nuveen’s 2024 EQuilibrium survey. This is freeing them up to explore more private investments and, in some instances, these investments are also playing into schemes’ environmental and social objectives.
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White papersCross Asset Investment Strategy - December 2024
Topic of the Month: The German economy has been lagging behind other Eurozone countries due to structural changes in its economic model and global trade. A huge investment effort would be needed to relaunch it. Economists recommend making up the lost ground within ten years by making massive infrastructure investments.
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White papersFixed income outlook: resilient US provides an anchor
The enduring resilience of the US economy will be a key driver of financial markets in 2025 and beyond. Having avoided recession, the US is returning to mid-cycle, according to economic data, while inflation has continued to ease back towards the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) 2% target, enabling the central bank to begin cutting rates. We believe the Fed views monetary policy as restrictive and will likely continue lowering rates, albeit at a slower pace than previously expected.
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White papersFiscal to the Fore
How the budget battles in France, Germany and even South Korea fit with our fiscally focused investment themes for the year ahead.
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White papersEmerging market debt outlook for 2025: Ready for Trump 2.0?
Looking ahead to 2025, the macro environment, in theory, sets the stage for a friendly backdrop in emerging markets (EM), especially given widespread disinflation, which should allow most major central banks to significantly ease rates throughout the year.
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White papersEuropean bonds shine ahead of ECB meeting
European bonds have performed strongly over the second half of the year and remain appealing heading into 2025 thanks to projected ECB rate cuts.
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White papersGlobal Investment Views - December 2024
A resilient US economy, the anticipation and eventual victory of Donald Trump and his recent appointments along with risks around inflation have been driving nominal and real yields over the past months. But US equities and the dollar rose amid a belief that the US economy would benefit from Trump’s policies at the expense of the rest of the world, i.e., Europe and some Asian countries.
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White papersFixed income: New challenges for the easing cycle
Following an extraordinarily friendly market for fixed income in 2024, our fixed income teams assess the outlook for 2025.
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White papersWhat’s next for France
The French fiscal situation deteriorated post-Covid. Public debt as a percentage of GDP now surpasses levels in the Euro Area, including Germany and Spain, even if it remains lower than the ratio in the US (which exceeds 120%).
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White papersThe Head of Macro Research view: Trump-starting the global economy
Two major policy uncertainties lie at the heart of the global outlook for 2025 and 2026. The first is the extent that US President-elect Donald Trump translates campaign promises into policy. Our view is that he will not fully deliver what he suggested on tariff increases, migrant deportations or fiscal loosening. However, we anticipate enough delivery to materially impact US growth as these policies bite into 2026.
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White papersThe constructive outlook for sustainable corporate bonds
Renewed economic growth and lower interest rates should support corporate bonds generally. Sustainable corporate bonds in particular may benefit from additional tailwinds and provide investors with opportunities to boost returns and temper credit risk, write Michel Baud and Yrieix De James.
