Fixed Income – Page 27
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White papersData Delivers Mixed Messages Amid Slowdown
Mixed data is fueling debate about underlying economic strength and recession odds. Meanwhile, markets this week await Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole. Elsewhere, Chinese policymakers took steps to address rising risks to the outlook. Eyes will be on Nord Stream 1 next week.
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White papersGeopolitics vs. the race to net zero
The Ukraine crisis is a horrendous tragedy and the war will have a considerable impact on the European and global economy. It has brought sharply into focus the fragility of supply chains and energy security - which has manifested in runaway inflation.
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White papersThe sleeping giant: Unlocking sustainable finance
Many banks are failing to realise their impact potential, thus missing out on commercial opportunity in the real economy
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White papersGlobal Macro Outlook - Third Quarter 2022
The global economic outlook deteriorated sharply in the second quarter and markets are increasingly concerned that higher rates will lead to a recession. This outcome isn’t a certainty, but the probability of slower or negative growth has increased materially as inflation has stayed high.
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White papersGlobal Investment Views - August 2022
The first sequence of the double bear markets (in equities and long-term bonds) adjusting to the end of easy money and rising inflation is almost complete. Now, the narrative has changed, with a shift in focus to deceleration of growth vs fears of inflation.
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White papersJuly 26-27 FOMC Review: Maintaining a Hawkish Course
The Federal Reserve hiked the fed funds rate by 75bp to 2.25-2.50%, the second consecutive 75bp rate hike. The Fed rate decision was widely expected. With today’s rate hike, the fed funds rate is within the 2 to 3% range of estimates of the long-term “neutral” rate. However, as Chair Powell reminded us during his press conference, policy needs to go beyond neutral into restrictive territory this year in order to reduce inflation.
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White papersHigh Yield: When Technicals Create Opportunity
Challenging technical conditions have caused high yield spreads to widen beyond what fundamentals would suggest, potentially setting the stage for strong performance in loans and senior secured bonds, in particular.
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White papersThree Reasons to Consider CLOs
The combination of wider spreads, strong structural protections and low interest-rate sensitivity presents a potentially compelling case for CLOs.
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White papersCompass - Mind the lag: recession fears flare too fast
Investors expect central banks will tame inflation whatever the cost, even triggering recession if necessary. This may indeed be policymakers’ approach in the short term as they seek to re-establish their credibility. The European Central Bank’s decision to raise rates by 50 bps is a case in point.
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White papersInflation is Hot—and Could Stay Hot
Autumn and winter should bring respite from the northern hemisphere’s punishing summer heatwave, but we don’t think they will ease the inflation temperature.
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White papersECB meeting: larger-than-expected rate hike, with new fragmentation tool outlined
What is your take on the July ECB meeting and what could the next steps be?
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White papersWhiplash!
Hard economic data has remained strong, but recession risks are on the rise. Combined with limited forward guidance from Central Banks, this has left markets to have to decipher what each data print will mean for monetary policy and the path of rates.
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White papersMidyear Strategic Investment Outlook: What Does the Market Move Mean for Strategic Investors?
Many people say they like to be long-term investors. It’s a laudable ambition, but often the short term gets in the way. Our notes typically focus on the strategic horizon, but when the S&P 500 falls by 20%, 10-year Treasury yields rise by 140 basis points and Bitcoin is down by 60% since the start of 2022, strategic investors need to respond.
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White papersTransition To a Net-Zero Carbon Economy: How Insurers Contribute To Green Finance Via Sustainable Bonds
The sustainable bond market recorded another tremendous year of growth in 2021, with €960 bn of bonds issued. This represents an increase of 80% vs 2020. This strong market expansion is being driven by institutional investors, for whom combating climate change and seeking positive social impacts have become strategic challenges.
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White papersMarket Scenarios and Risks - July/August 2022
We keep the probabilities of our central and alternative scenarios unchanged vs. last month. The new wave of Covid-19 and stagnation in the Eurozone are adding growth uncertainty over the short-term.
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White papersMacroeconomic Picture - July/August 2022
United States: signs of decelerating growth are increasing as high inflation bites into consumers’ disposable income and companies’ margins. While we do not see activity contracting in Q2, risks to our projections remain on the downside. We do expect the US economy to grow below potential between now and yearend and to remain on a similar sub-par growth trajectory into 2023, as tighter monetary policy impacts the most interestrate-sensitive sectors of the economy.
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White papersThe ECB’s ability to raise rates will depend on the strength of the antifragmentation tool
The ECB is determined to tighten its monetary policy in the face of record high inflation levels. However, it is addressing that risk by cooling inflation down or pushing the economy into recession or triggering a spike in peripheral debt borrowing costs, as in 2012.
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White papersEnergy Fuels European Inflation & Rate Fears
U.S. labor demand remains strong but has likely passed the peak imbalance with supply, while the Fed has reaffirmed its prioritization of inflation over growth. Elsewhere, talks of greater hikes by the ECB followed inflation surprises in Europe. All eyes are on U.S. CPI next week.
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White papersInto the Inflationary Slowdown
As inflation persists and recession risks rise, our Asset Allocation Committee sees more yield potential in fixed income and favors commodities for ongoing inflation exposure, but remains cautious in equities.
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White papersInsurers’ buy and maintain portfolios and sustainable investment
This article aims to explore how the inclusion of Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) criteria became a critical part of the management of Buy & Maintain (B&M) portfolios for insurers and other long-term investors and why we consider that the addition of new climate-aware guidelines such as temperature or carbon intensity should be implemented in all B&M portfolios, when possible, subject to a sound engagement policy.
