Amundi Asset Management

2019 Top 400 ranking: 9http://www.amundi.com

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Amundi

Profit trend and cycle analysis: a long-medium-short term sanity check

Profits fluctuations are often related to the economic business cycle as they are a crucial driver for investment decisions and ultimately are an important engine for economic growth.

Historically profits swing around trend with certain regular frequency closely linked with the so called inventories cycle or Kitchin cycle in business cycle theory (usually lasts 3-5 years). This cycle can explain a significant portion of profits volatility, namely the down and up turns, and it’s definitely relevant for estimating the turning points from an investment perspective.

There are, however, other important cycles with lower frequency, higher length and more dramatic and structural impact on profits generation. Usually they are influenced by other well-known cycles; for instance the Juglar and Kondratieff cycles which last usually 7-11 and 14-25 years respectively, and they affect persistently the long term trend shifts as they are often related to fixed and infrastructural investments.

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Head Office
90, boulevard Pasteur
Paris
75015
France
Company website:
http://www.amundi.com
Year Founded:
2010
No. of investment offices worldwide:
6

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  • Trade War Escalation And Impact On World Trade And Economic Growth

    Trade War Escalation And Impact On World Trade And Economic Growth

    White papersWed, 18 Sep 2019

    Trade tensions re-escalated during the summer. Starting on 1 September, the US Administration introduced new tariffs and China retaliated simultaneously. More tariffs are likely from the US side, including an increase in tariffs already in place from 25% to 30% and new tariffs on the last tranche of imported goods from China. Concerning extra-tariffs measures, in August the temporary licences granted to US companies to operate with Huawei were extended upon their expiration but, so ...

  • Risk Factors, Macroeconomic Context And Forecasts - September 2019

    Risk Factors, Macroeconomic Context And Forecasts - September 2019

    White papersWed, 18 Sep 2019

    Financial markets have been rattled in the past weeks over escalating trade war between the US and China as both imposed tariffs and counter-tariffs on imports. Idiosyncratic risks stories in countries such as Argentina resurfaced, the UK’s parliament was suspended over Brexit chaos and Italy witnessed a political crisis of its own, although a government seems in sight now.

  • Global Investment Views - September 2019

    Global Investment Views - September 2019

    White papersWed, 4 Sep 2019

    Financial markets have been rattled in the past weeks over escalating trade war between the US and China as both imposed tariffs and counter-tariffs on imports. Idiosyncratic risks stories in countries such as Argentina resurfaced, the UK’s parliament was suspended over Brexit chaos and Italy witnessed a political crisis of its own, although a government seems in sight now. 

  • domestic focus to exploit emerging markets equity opportunities

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    White papersSun, 1 Sep 2019

    The emerging markets (EM) universe has experienced significant changes in the last decade with the further addition of investible countries (i.e. China A shares in 2018).

  • Fed And Ecb, Bridging From A “Mid-Cycle Adjustment” To An “Impactful And Significant” Package.

    White papersTue, 27 Aug 2019

    The minutes from the latest ECB meeting suggest that the ECB is likely to proceed with a full set of measures in September, confirming not only the indications from President Draghi following the meeting but also the very latest statements by Olly Rehn, calling for the need for an “impactful and significant” package.

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