All Equities articles – Page 64
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White papers(Weekly Pandemic) Market Commentary - Exit strategy goes live
Now is a key moment in the Covid-19 crisis, as the lockdowns end. Countries that have opened up early have not seen any significant relapse. But the number of new cases globally has picked up, and selected US States are easing up restrictions too early. V-shaped recovery? Non-sense. Vs ...
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White papersEmerging Markets After The Coronavirus
The investment case appears battered, but even lower returns may look good when the world gets back to normal.
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White papersThe New ‘Fusion’
As the physical and digital worlds merge, companies, investors and society will need to adapt.
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White papersCoronavirus – weekly update – 06 May 2020
As of 6 May, the global COVID-19 case-load has crossed the 3.7 million mark and the number of fatalities exceeds a quarter of a million people. Notwithstanding the usual caution around data comparisons across countries or through time, we highlight the following key features:
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White papersThe Duration Risk in Equities
Since early 2017 there has been a notable gap between the expected growth in future dividends and the performance of the US equity market. The value of the 10 S&P 500® annual dividend index futures contracts at the end of April were eqivalent to about 500 S&P 500® index points, to be paid between now and the end of 2030.
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White papersGuiding Principles for an Effective Board - Insights from Engagement
Investors care deeply about how well a company board is functioning. Getting this aspect of governance right makes it more likely that material risks and opportunities will be well managed. It follows that an effective board is best placed to secure a company’s long-term success.
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White papersThe coronavirus crisis: hitting the reset button
When we emerge from the coronavirus pandemic, investors are likely to find a fundamentally altered political and economic landscape. It is therefore time to push the pause button and reset our expectations for the remainder of the year.
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White papersEmerging Market Green Bonds - Report 2019
Financing countries’ climate and sustainable development commitments will require global investment on an unprecedented scale. IFC estimates cumulative climate investment potential of $29.4 trillion across six key sectors in emerging market cities through 2030. These sectors include waste, renewable energy, public transportation, climate-smart water, electric vehicles, and green buildings1.
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White papersThe day after #1 Covid-19 the invisible hand pointing investors down the road to the 70s
Without a doubt, the Covid-19 pandemic is shaking the financial industry like never before. But this is not the first time the world has faced a pandemic of this scale, nor is it the first time that public policymakers, business leaders and pundits have asked: “Is it different this time around? Are we at a turning point?”.
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White papersChina: Coming out of COVID-19
Looking at the economic outlook for 2020 just a few months ago, there’s no doubt times have changed. Many investors are wondering how to navigate the supply and demand shocks derived from the coronavirus, and questioning, where do we go from here? In this article we focus on COVID-19 impact on China, and how this might trigger an acceleration in the adoption of products or behaviours that some long-term themes will benefit from.
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White papersThe Pandemic & The “Thucydides Trap”
Tensions may not necessarily escalate after the Great Lockdown.
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White papersHow to Invest in Equities When Guidance Disappears
The COVID-19 shutdown has prompted an unprecedented number of US companies to suspend earnings guidance. Equity investors should focus fundamental research on a wider range of outcomes instead of the overly precise game of predicting short-term estimates—especially during a period of heightened uncertainty.
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White papersCrisis Dashboard: Big Data Helps Paint the Big Picture (Update)
Our crisis dashboard includes signals from three areas: 1) public health, 2) the consumer sector and 3) financial markets. By pulling big data from traditional sources (earnings growth and gross domestic product, for example) and nontraditional sources (like Google Trends and Glassdoor), we can create a better mosaic of the road back. Public health, of course, is the key: until there’s a vaccine, the cascading impact of the virus may continue.
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White papersFactor Performance During Times of Crisis Including COVID-19
Why diversifying across well-defined factors is likely to be key in extreme volatility.
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White papersMacroeconomic picture - May 2020
Heading towards a sharp contraction in H1; the H2 recovery is being shaped by the duration of the crisis and the effectiveness of the unprecedented policy response, once the post-containment normalization phase starts. Since the start of April, both hard and soft data have begun to show the impact on the economy. In one month, the crisis has erased almost the number of jobs added since the GFC, and unemployment moved up sharply to 4.4% from 3.5% one month earlier. Sentiment plunged across business lines, especially in service and consumer sectors. Retail sales fell the most since 1992. Inflation moderated in March.
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White papersThematics Views - May 2020
Over the last few weeks, significant stabilisation plans have been announced across advanced economies and in addition true stimulus plans are now under consideration. Recent empirical studies show that fiscal multipliers could be much larger in the current depressed context than during normal times. We believe this could boost the recovery path of corporate dividends going forward, in Europe in particular.
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White papersCross Asset Investment Strategy - May 2020
After closing one of the worst quarters ever for equity markets, Q2 started on a high note, with indices (S&P 500 and Euro Stoxx 600) recovering markedly from the bottom hit during the previous month. There is clearly a battle between bull and bear forces taking place. On the bull side, extraordinary policy actions continue to propel market sentiment (signals of virus-peaking in Europe and hopes of sooner-than-expected re-opening). On the bear side, deteriorating fundamentals from the earnings season and the sustainability of the mounting debt pile will be key risks. The tug of war between sentiment and fundamentals is just the first in a long list of battles in course.
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White papersThe Widening Emerging-Developed Market Gap
In our previous paper on the impact of rapidly growing budget deficits in Japan, Western Europe and the US, we examined the relationship between debt levels and the short and long-term interest rates over time for 12 developed economies.
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White papersContraction > recovery > late cycle: a cycle round trip in three years
The pandemic outbreak altered the cycle of financial regimes we had in mind at the end of 2019, with consequences extending over the medium term: after a sharp contraction in 2020, 2021 will see a “recovery” in the growth and profit cycle with a rebound in risky assets while in 2022, we expect a normalization towards a late cycle.
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White papersMarkets Scenarios & Risks - May 2020
The potential easing of lockdown measures bring some light at the end of the tunnel. This is particularly the case in Europe where several countries are opening back shops, manufacturing capabilities or services. Data show that the worse is probably over in Italy and France for instance, but in the US, many states such as New York remain in an acute phase of the outbreak. Moreover, emerging countries are still at the beginning of the pandemic. Although it is too early to draw a conclusion, the low level of death toll registered so far in Africa gives hope for a more benign impact than feared. On one hand, these countries’ infrastructures will make the disease mo
