2023 Real Estate Top 150 ranking: 16
While e-commerce growth in Europe is thought to have averaged at around 10% in 2020, China may have experienced up to 30% growth. It is all about live streams, interaction via social media and being part of the product and its use over the phone. There is a “consumer-centric” vibrancy in China’s e-commerce market, while the west has a “tech driven”, top down approach.
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Based on the view that interest rates and therefore gilt yields are unlikely to return to their cyclical lows, the outlook for real estate investment is changing.
The construction industry will have breathed a sigh of relief. The construction cost index recently rose by just 1.4% year-on-year. The sharp temporary increase thus remains an anomaly triggered by the shortage of supply. Prices for building materials, which are largely imported, were the main driver prior to the rise in interest rates, as the Drewry World Container Index shows. However, no price reductions are expected in 2024. The higher interest on borrowing is set to drive prices until mid-2024 at the latest. On top of this, additional planning requirements could potentially account for up to 2 percentage points of construction inflation.
When is the right time to re-enter the market? Fears of investing whilst values are falling has put significant downwards pressure on investment volumes. Instead, real estate investors have been monitoring government bond yields, seeking stability in the so called ‘risk free rate’ as an indication that property yields have also stabilised. Into 2024, we expect investment activity to pick back up, supporting price discovery. Although the first half-year may only show tentative signs of improvement, by the second we believe activity will regain momentum.
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