Content (30)
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White papersRelative Value & Tactical Asset Allocation Q1 2025
Although the uncertainty of the U.S. election is over, uncertainty regarding the prioritization of announced policies creates a broader range of possible outcomes in 2025. An anticipated deregulatory environment should be positive for overall growth, while tariffs could work against global economic activity and temporarily boost inflation pressures.
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White papersGlobal Risks 2025: Turning Points?
As the dust from the U.S. election settles, the new year brings new challenges. Tariffs are likely to be the dominant theme early in 2025. Our base case is for the incoming Trump administration to impose substantial — albeit not universal — tariffs on most countries.
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White papersM&A in 2025: Opportunity, with a Side of Scrutiny
Governments, businesses and consumers all took advantage of a decade of free money. Bond markets are now multiple times larger than before the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), having soared to record levels. Economic activity and most financial markets benefited. As central banks around the world swiftly raised interest rates to fight inflation, significant challenges are emerging, especially concerning the ability to refinance or repay substantial volumes of maturing debt.
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White papersQT or Not QT?
Against the aggressive expansion of the balance sheet in response to the COVID pandemic, the Federal Reserve expanded its balance sheet from $4.1 trillion, or 18.8% of GDP, to a peak of $9.0 trillion, or 35.6% of GDP, in Q1 2022. This is nearly double the pre-COVID level, which was already elevated relative to the balance sheet seen in the wake of the Great Financial Crisis.
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White papersCentral and Eastern Europe (CEE): Back on the EM Radar
Higher Funding Needs Due to Elevated Post-Pandemic Fiscal Imbalances.
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White papersInvestment Grade Spreads: Tighter for Longer?
Spreads on IG bonds have been tight for most of the past year. Are we finally going to see a widening out of spreads? Even though spreads have been unusually tight for a long time, we expect that spreads will remain tight until markets become convinced about either a recession or a soft landing before we see material and persistent spread widening.
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White papersElection Economics
A resounding victory sweeps President (and President-Elect) Trump back to the White House. The substantial-for-modern-times majority in the Senate along with the popular vote means that the second Trump administration has more of a mandate than the first one.
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White papersABS: Normalizing Delinquent Behavior
Economic uncertainty and recession fears, combined with deteriorating metrics for consumer ABS, have given some investors pause, but we are relatively optimistic.
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White papersGlobal Outlook 2025
In 2025, we believe the core question to dominate economic discussions is where the unobservable natural rate (r*, the neutral rate of interest that supports full employment and constant inflation) lies and when central banks should stop cutting.
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White papersRelative Value & Tactical Asset Allocation Q4 2024
We are anticipating a stable macro environment in the near future, with some uncertainties stemming from U.S. elections and monetary policy. We continue to look for spreads to mostly remain range bound, with a low chance of further tightening. With a low risk of recession, a carry strategy is preferred in the next quarter or two, meaning we prefer investments with attractive yields, while remaining cautious about potential weakness.
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White papersRate Expectations
Much has been written about the pace of likely interest rate cuts from the U.S. Federal Reserve. We continue to expect a total of 75 bps by year end, with a first cut of 25 bps at the next Federal Open Market Committee Meeting on September 17-18.
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White papersEconomic Monthly: Strength or Softness?
Consumers have still not run out of runway. Despite having burned through the famous “excess savings” from pandemic-era stimulus, and despite a softer labor market, we continue to see consumers willing and able to spend. As we elaborate below, continued credit availability, investment spending and the labor market provide enough space for households to maintain their spending habits for the next several months.
