Content (43)
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White papersRelative Value & Tactical Asset Allocation – Q2 2025
Tariffs and trade policies can produce global growth volatility through direct economic effects and investment decisions, which could then translate into global financial market volatility. This could potentially add consumer stress and even impact consumers in the higher-income cohorts who have been less impacted by ongoing, above-target, inflation.
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White papersA Return to Uncertainty
We believe that even though 2025 is off to a rough start, firms and consumers will continue to adapt, and growth will stabilize over the year. Many of the negative impacts of lower activity in the beginning of the year (weaker consumer spending, weaker consumer confidence and high imports to front-run tariffs) are idiosyncratic and have the potential to be offset in subsequent quarters, resulting in overall growth that is healthy, albeit weaker than 2024.
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White papersQT or Not QT – Part Two
In the previous part of “QT or not QT” we discussed how the Federal Reserve balance sheet needs to change as it approached an optimal level. The final step, discussed by participants in the most recent Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, is to structure securities purchases in a way that would move the composition of the SOMA portfolio closer to the composition of outstanding Treasury debt. What would that mean for the current portfolio?
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White papersPrivate Debt Opportunities in Emerging Markets: Insights for Building Insurance Portfolios
Private debt markets in emerging economies may offer unique opportunities. They can help insurance-industry investors to seek yield enhancement, diversification and less-correlated returns compared to traditional public debt.
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White papersEmerging Markets Debt Restructurings: A Year of Resilience and Innovation
Between 2017 and 2022, 11 Emerging Markets (EM) sovereigns defaulted, representing approximately 15% of the Emerging Markets Bond Index (EMBI) weight taken 12 months prior to default.These defaults can be categorized into three distinct groups based on the catalysts that drove each country into default: pre-COVID self-induced, COVID-induced, and war-induced.
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White papersThe Return of Mercantilism? Shifting Goalposts on Trade
President Trump made several changes to trade policy in his first term, and U.S. firms have adjusted accordingly. Trade exposure has shifted away from China, and investment abroad has shifted toward Europe and the Western Hemisphere.
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White papersU.S. Housing Chartbook
The U.S. consumer remains strong on the back of a healthy labor market and inflation is moving back to target, albeit slowly.
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White papersThematic Engagement: 2024 Scope 3 Emissions
Scope 3 emissions are becoming increasingly important as issuers face growing pressure to report and reduce these emissions. In our latest report, we examine how issuers across public fixed-income and private credit sectors are tackling Scope 3 data challenges and setting decarbonization targets.
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White papersTrump 2.0: Back to the Future?
By the end of this month, President Trump will enter the White House for his second term with an economic backdrop quite different from that of his first term. While the policies he advocates for are of a similar style this time around, the entirely different economic situation mean that those policies may have a different effect than they would have had in his first term.
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White papersRelative Value & Tactical Asset Allocation Q1 2025
Although the uncertainty of the U.S. election is over, uncertainty regarding the prioritization of announced policies creates a broader range of possible outcomes in 2025. An anticipated deregulatory environment should be positive for overall growth, while tariffs could work against global economic activity and temporarily boost inflation pressures.
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White papersShort Duration Q4 2024 Recap, Portfolio Actions & Outlook
Our latest Short Duration Quarterly Commentary recaps Q4 2024 and shares our sector outlook for short duration bonds.
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White papersQ4 2024 Emerging Markets Review and Outlook
Our current Emerging Markets Review and Outlook recaps Q4 in emerging market debt and looks ahead to 2025, with the Federal Reserve’s path forward unclear and markets bracing for the uncertainty of Trump administration policy changes.
