Interview Thomas Gerhardt - Head of Global Emerging Markets and Commodities
Emerging markets seem to have returned to centre stage. Is the trend really improving?
A new M&A cycle in Europe started in mid-2013. After three difficult years, emerging markets have for again looked as if they are improving and investors are once again showing an interest. Overall macroeconomic news is encouraging. The situation in China is improving. Manufacturing PMI, for example, hit an 18-month high over the summer, and the government decided on a number of favourable measures, which now look to be bearing fruit. Nevertheless, we still have to keep an eye on the medium-to long-term situation. Key reforms still need to be introduced and China’s economy remains overdependent on the government.
Some countries have made bold reforms. Mexico, for example, launched structural reforms several months ago – notably in the energy sector – that got the country back on track. The impact can now be seen as investors return and macroeconomic data improve.
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