After years of buoyant market conditions that have driven strong market performance across the board, investors are questioning for how long this “Goldilocks” regime can last and which investment areas will continue to offer opportunities in the near future.
In this respect, we believe that Emerging Market (EM) assets still offer potential return opportunities, especially when compared to Developed Market (DM) assets, as positive cyclical and structural dynamics are at play. Among the most important of these, we point to the following: the transformation of EM economic models which are gradually becoming more balanced towards internal demand; the structural reforms in process in several countries; the improvement in governance at EM companies; supportive earnings growth dynamics; and the development of new markets and sectors.
All these positive factors signal bullish sentiment towards EM and help drive flows into the asset class, especially to EM debt and, more recently, a renewed focus on equities. However, as we enter a more mature phase of the global financial cycle and a more uncertain market environment, with central banks (CB) further tightening monetary conditions, investors are questioning if this bonanza is set to continue. The key question is which risks, opportunities and approaches could benefit the most in this new market phase?