2023 key convictions from CIOs: 1. The Russia-Ukraine conflict is acting as an accelerator towards a regime shift, featuring higher inflation, geopolitical uncertainty, and a tug of war between monetary and fiscal policy, in a world already flooded by debt. Expect economic divergences to intensify.
2. The energy crisis will be the main economic driver in Europe, which will fall into recession. Fiscal measures may mitigate this, but the moment of truth will be in Q4 2023, when gas inventories need to be restored. Gaining strategic energy independence and signing new commercial ties will be key in a transformative year.
3. China’s economy could unveil positive surprises in 2023, depending on the outcome of the two main challenges: housing market and Covid-19 policy. On the former, we see a stabilisation thanks to looser policy, on the latter a gradual relaxation of restrictions. Geopolitical pressure and an intensifying US-China confrontation are key risks.
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