Content (5)

  • 2020 Isn’t Only Hindsight

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    2020 Isn’t Only Hindsight


    By any conventional measure, the current recovery and expansion phase of the U.S. business cycle is the longest in the nation’s history. This naturally leads many to conclude that the economy, and by extension property markets, must be “late cycle” with an inevitable downturn just around the corner.

  • U.S. Economic & Property Market Perspective Q1 2020

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    U.S. Economic & Property Market Perspective Q1 2020


    At the beginning of March, the U.S. economy was on pace to record another quarter of moderate but positive growth. Total employment had increased by 214,000 in January and 275,000 in February and the Atlanta Federal Reserve’s real-time model (GDPNow) suggested annualized real GDP growth of 2.5% for the quarter. Within a span of just a few weeks, that assessment was radically upended as more than 30 million American workers lost their jobs in the rapid shutdown of wide swathes of the U.S. economy in response to the equally rapid spread of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19).

  • What Happens After Listed Real Estate Falls?

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    What Happens After Listed Real Estate Falls?


    It has been a month since the high watermark for listed real estate securities and other equities, and a week since the dam broke. Listed real estate has suffered even more than the broad market, especially in the past few days as public life began to shut down in the wake of the COVID-19 outbreak. Hotels are empty, many malls and restaurants are shuttered, and most of us are working out of our homes rather than at our offices. Even after the March 24 rally, both U.S. and global listed real estate markets are down roughly 40% from their February peaks.

  • AEW Research Flash Report - May 2020

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    AEW Research Flash Report - May 2020


    The economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic can perhaps best be described in four distinct phases: the shutdown, the re-opening, the transition to the new normal and the new normal (or as one colleague has put it, the new “abnormal”). As of May 18th, all 50 states have officially begun the process of lifting restrictions on personal and commercial activities and re-opening their economies. While there is great variation across the states with respect to the pace and breadth of re-opening, all have initiated some form of staged re-opening.

  • AEW Research Flash Report - April 2020

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    AEW Research Flash Report - April 2020


    The latest data being released illustrates the immense impact that broad based social distancing has had on wide swathes of the economy. These measures, while unfavorable to the nation’s economy, have largely worked to slow the growth rate of new infections, and have generally kept levels below which most hospital systems are overwhelmed.