White papers - all assets – Page 189
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White papers*Mid-year outlook takeaways – Chronicle of a recession foretold*
Investor surveys, and now the US yield curve, indicate a high likelihood of a recession in the US. The question seems not whether there will be a recession, but when. Economist forecasts and earnings growth estimates, however, suggest a recession is not so certain. With growth already slowing more quickly than expected, markets are assuming central banks will not hike policy rates as much as was thought. But inflation may not fall enough to make that possible.
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White papersThe risks around China’s grassroots mortgage ‘boycott’
China is seeing rising numbers of homebuyers stopping their mortgage payments to banks because cash-strapped developers are not delivering the homes they bought off-plan. The question is whether this mortgage ‘boycott’ will result in systemic risk pulling the rug from under the entire financial system.
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White papersTowards a new set of fiscal rules in Europe: an investor view
In the current high-inflation regime, the use of fiscal space must: (1) be rule-based; and (2) preserve the possibility of a cooperative game between monetary and budgetary policies. This use of fiscal space should also help manage investors’ expectations, in order to minimise the risk of ‘sunspot equilibria’, where investors’ beliefs cause prices to diverge from fundamentals.
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White papersPrecautionary Liquidity and Retirement Saving
There is a large debate on the optimal degree of savings’ liquidity in retirement systems. Liquid retirement savings allow people to flexibly respond to life events such as income shocks but can also lead to undersaving.
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White papersTowards new fiscal rules in Europe
After years of dormant peripheral risk, the recent resurgence of fragmentation issues in Europe, amid rising stagflationary risks at a time of Central Banks committing to tame inflation, puts the delicate fiscal and monetary equilibrium under the spotlight. When facing a higher inflationary regime, we call for a new set of fiscal rules designed to overcome the limits of the old overly rigid one size-fits-all framework.
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White papersInflation is Hot—and Could Stay Hot
Autumn and winter should bring respite from the northern hemisphere’s punishing summer heatwave, but we don’t think they will ease the inflation temperature.
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White papersFixed Income Investment Outlook: 3Q 2022
Central bank monetary tightening has arrived, with a resulting shift upward in market interest rates and widened credit spreads. Although there is risk to the upside, we believe that inflation will ease from peak levels but remain elevated above targets until well into next year. In this environment we are seeing opportunities across credit sectors. Continued macro volatility will keep spreads “two-way,” while positive underlying fundamentals across a range of sectors should provide support.
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White papersFarewell, Forward Guidance
The ECB went big, ending the era of negative rates by raising interest rates 50bps. The central bank is focused on ensuring an even transmission of monetary policy and unveiled its new anti-fragmentation tool.
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White papersECB meeting: larger-than-expected rate hike, with new fragmentation tool outlined
What is your take on the July ECB meeting and what could the next steps be?
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White papersItaly swimming in uncertain waters as PM Draghi resigns
Given the resignation of Prime Minister (PM) Draghi, what scenarios does Italy face?
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White papersAmundi Pension Funds Letter n°15
As holidaymakers resume their familiar summer breaks and crowds return to the Champs-Elysées to cheer on the final stage of the 2022 Tour de France, elsewhere established customs and trends seem less secure. One could say that this period of transition has been ongoing for some time. But in 2022, a new phase clearly unfolded, one unique to our times, but at the same time also hugely familiar. A phase where everything takes on a geopolitical slant.
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White papersZero-Covid weighs on China’s growth in Q2
A weak second quarter for China’s economy, with GDP growth narrowly avoiding contraction, might mark the low for this cycle (disregarding the pandemic-related dip in Q1 2020). However, even with intense policy support for the economy and less stringent Covid restrictions, any recovery looks set to be gradual at best, leaving 2022 growth short of the official 5.5% target.
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White papersWhiplash!
Hard economic data has remained strong, but recession risks are on the rise. Combined with limited forward guidance from Central Banks, this has left markets to have to decipher what each data print will mean for monetary policy and the path of rates.
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White papersUnwavering Resolve
Central banks are increasingly worried they might be losing an inflation battle that could now be generational, so expect them to get much more aggressive to catch up.
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White papersMidyear Strategic Investment Outlook: What Does the Market Move Mean for Strategic Investors?
Many people say they like to be long-term investors. It’s a laudable ambition, but often the short term gets in the way. Our notes typically focus on the strategic horizon, but when the S&P 500 falls by 20%, 10-year Treasury yields rise by 140 basis points and Bitcoin is down by 60% since the start of 2022, strategic investors need to respond.
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White papersEconomic and Market Review: Key Considerations for Equity Investors
We see increasing likelihood of a recession, but even if we avoid one, we think the coming months are going to feel like a recession as the decline in stock market valuations in the first half of the year are likely followed by a decline in corporate earnings in the second half.
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White papersFossil fuels: Here to stay or heading for extinction?
Beyond the headline net zero commitments and frequently reoccurring climate platitudes, reducing carbon emissions in line with global targets will require some seriously heavy lifting, particularly by companies with long histories of traditional energy generation.
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White papersBraving bear markets: 5 lessons from seasoned investors
Stock markets around the world have entered bear territory. The MSCI ACWI slid over 20% for the six months ended June 30, 2022. Today, many investors are focused on the likelihood of recession and more pain ahead.
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White papersWhen short term pain can bring long term gains
2022 has not been a great time for bonds. The Bloomberg Global Aggregate Index and Bloomberg US Treasury Index both hit historical lows, returning -13.9% and -9.1%, respectively, in the first 6 months of 20221 . Meanwhile, risky asset classes also sold off significantly, which has led to many investors questioning the role of bonds as a diversifier to equities.
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White papers5G: Worry-Free Warranty Goes Mainstream
As adoption of connected technology increases, so does the case for device insurance. What opportunities could this bring?
