White papers - all assets – Page 180
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White papersFixed Income Investment Outlook: 4Q 2022
Despite volatility, the basic storyline of inflation and the Federal Reserve should continue to drive market behavior. Over the months ahead, we anticipate continued tightening by the Fed and challenging European growth trends, with tail risks tied to the U.K., China weakness and policy overreach. A focus on shorter durations and quality, with opportunistic exposure to longer bonds and credit, merits consideration.
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White papersGlobal CIO Q&A: on inflation, rates, recession and more
Inflation has reached record levels. What do you expect in the upcoming months?
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White papersBe Wary of Bear Market Rallies
We may want to be optimistic about inflation and rates, but that only delays the hard questions we are likely to face as we enter the new economic era.
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White papersSustainable Global Equity, 2022 Q3 report
As well as our usual engagement and ESG metrics, the latest quarterly report from the Sustainable Global Equity team considers the health of the world’s supply chains. Are they on the mend after pandemic-induced dislocations?
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White papersArtificial Intelligence and ESG: How do they fit?
Artificial Intelligence (AI) helps to circumvent some challenges with traditional ESG data. Textual and satellite data analysis can discover key ESG risks and opportunities. AI contributes to ESG integration by providing an alternative source of data for monitoring ESG reporting.
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White papers360°, Q3 2022
In the latest edition of our 360° report, we revisit what’s been something of an annus horribilus for fixed income investors. Against a backdrop of rising inflation, tightening monetary policy and a historical drawdown for bond markets, what are the prospects for an asset class that emphasizes stability and reliable returns?
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White papersMacroeconomic Picture - October 2022
United States: Growth. We are still calling a soft landing in the US, with an extended period of sub-par growth for 2023 and 2024. We expect the US economy to grow by 0.9% in 2023 (1.1% Q4/Q4) and 1.3% in 2024 (1.3% Q4/Q4). Inflation. Headline inflation has peaked in the ...
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White papersMarket Scenarios and Risks - October 2022
We maintain the content and probabilities of our scenarios. Note that some of the risk factors we identify may occur in our central scenario, which is probably not yet fully priced-in by markets. It would take a combination of risk factors for the downside scenario to materialise. The downside is counterbalanced by an upside scenario, that of a rapid decline in inflation due to an easing of gas prices and/or to the combined tightening of global monetary policies, the impact of which can be underestimated.
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White papersToo early for a Fed pivot
The flattening of the US yield curve will depend on the persistence of core inflation and on the impact of monetary tightening on growth. The more resilient the US economy proves to interest-rate hikes, the more aggressively the Fed will have to tighten monetary policy, thereby increasing the risk of recession. We have gone from ‘bad news is good news’ to ‘good news is bad news’.
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White papersTLTRO in the context of ECB policy normalisation
TLTRO repayments and redemptions will drive incoming ECB passive QT over the next few quarters. So far, banks have repaid a small amount of liquidity, while the ECB’s recent decision on remuneration of excess reserves has helped keep current excess liquidity abundant, aiming at a smooth transmission of its monetary policy.
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White papersSDG Engagement Equity Q3 2022 case study
ROIC is the largest publicly-traded, grocery-anchored shopping centre real estate investment trust (REIT) focused exclusively on the west coast of the US.
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White papersRelaxed financial markets look at Lula’s comeback
The first electoral round was won by former President Lula. However, the incumbent, Bolsonaro, performed better than expected. Their economic agendas differ on a number of issues, while risks are more asymmetric under each candidate. Either could benefit from a robust macroeconomic scenario.
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White papersUnited States: a green industrial policy in the making
The US Congress’s August approval of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) came as a surprise to most observers. With the mid-term elections just months away and no majority in Congress, no one expected new legislation to be passed. Yet, the Democrats and Republicans managed to reach a compromise. We discuss below the measures announced to promote the environmental transition, which is the centrepiece of the act.
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White papersEuropean Politicians Fuel Support for Energy Bills
European policymakers are battling energy prices ahead of winter, while a tight U.S. labor market and elevated CPI data next week should keep the Fed hawkish before November rate hike decisions. In China, will credit growth support the economy and a pickup in internal demand?
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White papersCLOs: Up in Quality
Against a challenging macro backdrop, CLOs look attractive given the strong structural protections and incremental yield on offer—but there is a case to be made for staying up in quality.
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White papersESG Viewpoint – Can mining be a responsible investment?
Its environmental and social impacts can make mining hard to square with a responsible investment approach. As the world shifts away from fossil fuels – a move that increases demand for ‘transition metals’ – we explore the need to think again.
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White papersCross Asset Investment Strategy - October 2022
Geopolitical risks, inflation and hawkish central banks translate into a cautious stance on risk assets such as credit, in which, a deceleration in growth (and its impact on earnings) could create concerns over cash flows and liquidity, especially for the lower rated companies. Hence, we prefer US IG and are defensive on HY.
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White papersCapital Commitment
Over ten trillion dollars are allocated to private market funds that require outside investors to commit to transferring capital on demand; most of these funds are Private Equity (PE). We show within a novel dynamic portfolio allocation model that ex-ante commitment has large effects on investors’ portfolios and welfare, and we quantify those effects.
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White papersThe Meeting Room: Asia ex-Japan, September 2022
Join Jonathan Pines and Sandy Pei for the latest Federated Hermes Meeting Room: Virtual Portfolio Briefing on Asia ex-Japan.
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White papersMarkets on edge despite Bank of England intervention
Sweeping UK government tax cuts sent shockwaves through financial markets as investors and economists queried the wisdom behind the plan.
