White papersStrategic Relative Value – Q1 2020
Persistent central bank liquidity and easing geopolitical tensions should support a continued rally in risk assets this year. However, the significant disconnect between elevated valuations and only modest economic growth means risk assets are vulnerable to a deterioration in sentiment so investors should also maintain some defensive positioning.
- White papers
Private Credit: Where We’ve Been, Where We’re Going
Industry veterans Ian Fowler and Adam Wheeler describe the dramatic evolution of private credit markets and explain why quality of earnings and varied definitions of ‘senior’ risk could be at the center of the next credit market storm.
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What Can German Equity Investors Expect in the Months Ahead?
While the phase one U.S.-China trade deal may provide a near-term boost for German equities, there are a number of risks on the horizon that could introduce volatility in the months ahead—making stock selection as important as ever.
- White papers
Going Viral: The Coronavirus or a Central Bank Holding Pattern?
Wuhan goes on lockdown while the U.S. shifts trade truce considerations to Europe. Meanwhile, Central banks remain optimistic for strengthening global growth, and we’re vigilant for potential insurance cuts from the BoE next week.
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Spectrum Asset Management Outlook for 2020
Some macro risks—such as Brexit—appear to be de-escalating, but uncertainties continue; trade war negotiations are likely to overhang sentiment into the United States election.
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EMD in 2020: A year of “alpha,” and the return of the “political economy”
As we end another tumultuous year for emerging markets (EM), it’s a good time to pause and reflect on what the start of the third decade of the 21st century holds for emerging market debt (EMD) investors.
- White papers
From trend to norm - Real estate investment and sustainability
As lawmakers, investors and tenants continue to raise the bar in terms of their expectations, integrated sustainability strategies have become an essential part of real estate investment management and a key to maintaining the value of these investments.
- White papers
Capital Market Assumptions - 5 Year Outlook
Every year, Northern Trust’s Capital Market Assumptions Working Group develops forward-looking, historically aware forecasts for global economic activity and financial market returns that drive our five-year asset class return expectations and inform our asset allocation decisions. All of this comes together in the form of our long-term strategic asset allocations, which are used by institutional and individual investors worldwide.
- White papers
2020 Outlook: Everything In Moderation
We think 2020 will be another year of slow growth — durable enough to avoid recession but disappointing to those looking for improvement. The combination of moderate growth and technological innovation will continue to suppress inflation, bolstering the global central bank easing cycle underway. This leaves us continuing to favor “lower-risk risk assets” such as U.S. equities and high-yield bonds.
- White papers
Appraising home bias exposure
This paper explores the investment impact of the large and persistent home bias in the equity allocations of the five largest European pension fund markets since the global financial crisis.
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