Outlooks – Page 73
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White papersInflation: Preparing your portfolio for the surge
After falling to almost zero during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, the rate of U.S. inflation is on the rise. To navigate the current market environment, today’s investor must understand how quickly the United States economic recovery will generate inflation, how long that inflation will be sustained, and what investment implications follow.
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White papers2021 Recovery to continue and beat potential
We confirm the financial “recovery regime” as a central scenario (with a 70% probability) for the next 12 to 18 months, with growth and macro determinants remaining paramount.
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White papersThe end of the Great Moderation and the return of volatility
Since the mid-1980s, the macroeconomic volatility has declined to a postwar low.
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White papersPausing for Breath on ‘Peak Growth’
Rates of change in economic data may be hitting their peaks, but that need not preclude more long-term upside for risky assets.
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White papersFive key themes in energy credit
In credit markets, energy was one of the most volatile sectors in 2020, with oil futures trading in negative territory for some time.
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White papersA Few Sparks & Lots of Smoke—But Still No Sign of a Fire
As investors search for signs of uncontrolled inflation, it’s hard to see anything more than you’d expect in a strong cyclical recovery.
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White papersStill Searching for (Lasting) Inflation
Markit flash PMIs suggest European economies are improving. In the U.S., stimulus and reopenings drove the composite PMI to a record high, and consumer confidence is rising sharply. Elsewhere, the BOJ revised growth projections higher amid strong external demand.
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White papersHedge Fund Perspectives
We explore hedge fund strategies with structural appeal in a complex market environment.
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White papersDoomsday at the bank: a spoonful of measures helps the resolution go down
The global financial crisis proved bank failure was not just ancient history or fictional fodder. Fiorino explains why post-crisis measures to fend off future financial meltdowns may have changed the odds but left the possibility of ‘doomsday’ intact.
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White papersCLOs: What’s Driving the Opportunity Today?
Co-Heads of Structured Credit, Melissa Ricco and Taryn Leonard provide insight into last year’s ‘rollercoaster ride’ in CLOs, and explain why both fundamental and technical factors appear to be aligning to create a strong backdrop for the asset class moving forward.
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White papersSDG Engagement High Yield Credit Annual 2020 Report
Seeking twin objectives of strong financial performance and positive social and environmental impacts that contribute to achieving the 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), we launched SDG Engagement High Yield Credit in October 2019.
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White papersThe Mother of All Recoveries
We’ve been referring to the post-pandemic economy as the “Mother of All Recoveries,” with yearly growth at a level not seen in decades. And we expect this recovery/expansion cycle to ultimately be measured in years, not months or quarters.
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White papersHow the pandemic has impacted gender inequality
In the first of our new series on the coronavirus pandemic and its broader implications for society, Lisa Lange looks at the disproportionate impact that Covid-19 has had on women, and how this can be addressed.
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White papersHealthcare – Rocked by the pandemic, the prospects are intact
Jon Stephenson, senior portfolio manager for US equities and specialist for healthcare innovators in our Boston office, discusses the outlook for healthcare stocks after a hectic year.
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White papersShifts & Narratives #2 - Inflation: something deep awakens
One year ago, as the Covid-19 crisis had just begun, we wrote about its potential inflation implications from both a cyclical and a structural standpoint. Cyclically, the crisis was already generating a combination of demand and supply shocks that could only increase short-term inflation volatility and sectoral fragmentation.
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White papersBond investors beware – US rates may rise sooner than thought
US bond markets have begun pricing in higher interest rates, specifically two 25 basis point (bp) increases in the benchmark fed funds rate by 2023.
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White papersA Crack in China’s debt foundation
Bonds issued by China’s biggest distressed debt asset manager just lost 40% of their value—how concerned should we be?
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White papersTransitioning to Net-Zero Investing
Support for the goal of net-zero emissions gained strong momentum during 2020. What does this imply for market participants, and what initial steps can asset owners and managers take on this daunting path?
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White papersValue investing: Is this the biggest opportunity since the tech bubble?
Value stocks have been underperforming ‘glamour stocks’ for a while, rendering valuations as cheap as they were in the tech bubble of 2000, while ‘glamour stocks’ are as expensive as back then.
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White papersImpact Investing: Shifting gears
The global macro environment has shifted. Societal challenges are now on the agenda of the world’s political leaders. The United States’ return to the Paris Agreement on climate change comes with federal spending to address longstanding social and economic challenges in a way not seen in a half-century.
