Outlooks – Page 60
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White papersMore China Lockdowns May Bring More Slowdowns
China’s zero-COVID policy should be a significant headwind to growth, with its impact likely weighing more on consumption than production. Nevertheless, more logistical delays could disrupt manufacturing activity in the months ahead and add to global inflationary pressures.
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White papersESG Thema #9 - Engaging on Human rights: Identifying risks and promoting best practices
This paper is the first of our ESG Thema series on social issues. The “S” pillar of ESG investing is increasingly on the agenda of investors, alongside environmental issues, as they have come to recognize the materiality of social risks. The first topic we will tackle as part of this series is that of respect for human rights, specifying how investors can integrate these fundamental rights in their investment and engagement strategies.
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White papersSustainable Global Equity Report, Q1 2022
In this latest update on the Sustainable Global Equity strategy, fund manager Martin Todd asks: Is ESG inflationary?
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White papersCautious, Not Bearish
Investors may want to position for persistent volatility as growth begins to slow, but we still believe earnings growth supports the case for equities.
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White papersAdopt a Gold Standard for Your Sustainable Investments
From escalating climate threats to growing social challenges, the impetus for creating a more sustainable world has become impossible to ignore. But we can’t rely on governments and philanthropy to solve the problems. Investors have an important role to play by supporting private sector efforts to address the issues that will redefine life on earth for decades to come.
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White papersFrench election: markets complacent for Macron victory, but game is not yet won
The first round of the Presidential elections in France took place on Sunday 10 April and the result confirmed the general picture that commentators had anticipated in the weeks leading up to the vote. Incumbent President Emmanuel Macron will face off against National Rally leader Marine Le Pen in the second round, scheduled for 24 April.
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White papersFixed Income Investment Outlook: 2Q 2022
Global growth uncertainty has accelerated while inflation appears likely to persist. Still, we anticipate neither recession nor stagnation; moreover, central bank tightening expectations have likely peaked, potentially normalizing interest rate volatility and supporting spread sectors.
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White papersEconomic and Market Review: Key Considerations for Equity Investors
We believe the conflict in Ukraine may turn out to be less critical for equity markets than the upcoming turn we anticipate in the economic growth cycle.
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White papersMarket snapshot: Fed ramps up policy response to runaway inflation
US central bank to begin speedy reduction of its balance sheet as officials lean towards 50bps rate rises this year
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White papersHoping for the Best, Preparing for the Worst
We’ve officially embarked on a very peculiar tightening cycle—one in which inflation is at levels more associated with the peak of the hiking cycle, and not the start.
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White papersCredit markets: more attractive valuations but we remain cautious
Valuations are now a little more attractive. However, the environment remains challenging, particularly in Europe. We remain cautious and more constructive on US credit markets relative to euro markets.
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White papersMacroeconomic Picture - April 2022
United States: the increase in energy and commodity prices, which is pushing inflation higher, is negatively impacting the US consumer, both in terms of confidence and spending. At the same time, companies’ capex intentions remain high, suggesting that while US consumption may be decelerating, capex should remain resilient to the Ukraine war confidence hit.
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White papersEquity Outlook: War Intensifies Inflation Test for Investors
Stock markets fell in the first quarter as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine destabilized the growth outlook, amplified concerns about rising interest rates and unleashed geopolitical risks. While the conflict has created many uncertainties, we believe the impact of persistent inflation will be the dominant influence for equity investors through the remainder of 2022 and beyond.
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White papersMarket snapshot: Is a recession around the corner?
The US treasury yield curve inverted for the first time in almost three years, a traditional harbinger of a recession.
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White papersFixed-Income Outlook: Look to the Horizon in Stormy Seas
Russia’s war on Ukraine has shaken the world. From a massive humanitarian crisis to an energy shock to food insecurity, the ripple effects are already being felt near and far. Even if the conflict ends tomorrow, the invasion could have lasting global consequences. Amid heightened geopolitical tensions, continued volatility over the near term is the only certainty. Below are the top risks—and strategies—we think bond investors should keep in mind.
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White papersIs Russia’s Invasion Inflationary or Deflationary?
Global tragedies, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the Ukraine invasion delivered similar economic shocks, roiling the balances of supply and demand. But the lockdowns came with floods of cheap money and generous subsidies, while this war coincides with central banks tightening and governments thinking harder about deficits.
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White papersCarbon Handprints: A New Approach to Climate-Focused Equity Investing
How can investors gain confidence that an equity portfolio is invested in companies that are really helping to address climate risk? Focus on a company’s carbon handprint, which measures the positive impact, or carbon avoided, by using its products.
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White papersMaking the case for climate risk-adjusted refinancing operations
Here is the third in our series of regular articles on current academic research into a range of sustainable investment topics. The papers discussed were presented at the latest annual GRASFI conference.
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White papersValue stocks still cheap relative to growth sector peers
We expect the environment in the coming few years to be unusually favourable for value relative to growth stocks. Multi-factor equity strategies should prove more attractive for investors. The prospect of rising interest rates as central banks react to higher inflation further complicates the outlook for ‘glamour’ growth stocks.
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White papersSignal changes: why finance is warming to AI
Fiorino tracks the AI journey from sci-fi to hi-fi(nance) and where the faux-human tech may take the real financial industry next…
