Outlooks – Page 43
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White papersInvesting at a Crossroads: Three Themes for Today’s New Challenges
As 40-year tailwinds turn to headwinds, we distill an era of sometimes bewildering change into three themes and a new investment playbook.
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White papersQ&A: The asset allocation process of a long-term investor
Views from the TIAA General Account
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White papersWhat does ESG mean for private credit?
ESG’s impact on investor and manager behavior has changed the way we look at the world. Churchill’s Randy Schwimmer and Mickey Weatherston address what it means for private credit.
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White papersTime to refocus on bonds - Rethinking portfolios after the great repricing
Inflation has risen to levels not seen in 40 years, leading to a repricing of financial markets this year, which has been particularly severe in the fixed income space. Central Banks have already started to hike rates and turn to the hawkish side to avoid de-anchoring inflation expectations. The era of low or even negative interest rates is over.
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White papersUK market turmoil points towards further volatility in global currencies
Investors’ focus is shifting from the poor growth/inflation mix to the extremely negative external balance picture in the UK. Last Friday (23/09), the government announced an additional 0.5% of GDP in unfunded tax cuts and the reaction of UK assets recalled actions we used to see only in emerging markets.
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White papersPreparing portfolios for the unexpected
Asset valuations are undergoing a considerable reshuffle in 2022, from bonds to equities to commodities. This vast reshuffling of the cards reflects a rapid rise in interest rates and especially in long-term real rates. The rise in real rates is unprecedented since the establishment of inflation-linked bond markets in the late 1990s, and triggering deep concern as US 10-year real yields approach 1.5%.
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White papersRethinking sustainable packaging for zero waste
Our current take-make-waste system harms nature through excessive materials extraction, and, at the end, through crude waste disposal and pollution. Sustainable packaging is a growing industry that can help address the threat this poses to natural capital.
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White papersItaly election: no major surprise from the polls, maybe positive for markets
Election outcome and political scenario: The centre-right coalition won Italy’s general election on 25 September, with approximately 44% of votes. Overall, we believe that Italy’s general election offered no major surprises and at the margin, the news flow is positive, as the centre-right collation will not have a two-thirds parliamentary majority, which would have allowed it to vote for constitutional amendments.
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White papersThey’ve got the power? European Utilities and the energy crisis
Robin Usson, Senior Credit Analyst, explains what the impact of the energy crisis on the European Utilities market means for investing in the sector.
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White papersCan we trust inflation forecasts?
In the latest instalment of Simply put, where we make macro calls with a multi-asset perspective, we argue that inflation forecasts have become irrelevant in a volatile inflation environment and suggest more attention should be given to the components behind the overall figure.
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White papersArtificial Intelligence: Responsible AI and the path to long-term growth
Artificial Intelligence (AI) has drastically transformed the business environment and become critical to companies across a broad range of sectors – from finance to healthcare and automotive.
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White papersInvesting in the future of food
There is an urgent need to re-evaluate our wasteful and unsustainable food systems if we are to meet the challenge of feeding a growing global population amid geopolitical shocks, climate change and unprecedented biodiversity loss. How can investors align portfolios with this shift?
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White papersShipping and the transition to net zero
It will cost an estimated USD 1.65 trillion to decarbonise the shipping industry. What is the current state of the industry and what are some of the investable solutions that are enabling the transition?
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White papers20-21 September FOMC meeting: the move into restrictive territory
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting and statement: On 21 September, the Fed hiked the Fed funds rate by 75bp, to 3-3.25%, the third consecutive 75bp rate hike, and the fifth rate increase in 2022. This means the central bank has raised rates by 3 percentage points this year, clearly prioritising its aim to tame inflation even if it means damaging economic growth.
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White papersHave investors deployed enough hedges?
In the latest instalment of Simply put, where we make macro calls with a multi-asset perspective, we take stock of the Federal Reserve’s determination to bring inflation under control at the cost of economic growth and outline how this is impacting our portfolio positioning.
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White papersThe burning issue: Avoiding ESG fatigue
How can we face existential problems and stay positive? Abigail Herron contemplates simple steps to protect momentum and avoid burnout.
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White papersReal-Time Macro Information and Bond Return Predictability: A Weighted Group Deep Learning Approach
This paper proposes a weighted group neural network model and reexamines whether treasury bond returns are predictable when real-time, instead of fully-revised, macro information is used. Real-time macro vintage data and news-based topic attention are taken into account.
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White papersMaking Up Lost Ground
Another 75bps and more hawkish talk from Jerome Powell. Markets reacted swiftly to signals that more large increases are coming—more than they had priced in. See how this frontloading by central banks aligns with our central scenarios and expectations for the coming year.
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White papersESG Viewpoint – Should ‘doing good’ pay out? Linking executive pay to ESG metrics
ESG metrics in pay matter. We explain why, outline our expectations for companies in this area and detail our engagement efforts and the progress made.
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White papersThe lifeline of connectivity
In the digital age almost half the world’s population are still offline. The UN has warned that without decisive action, “the digital divide will become the new face of inequality.” But we believe investing with an impact lens can help provide a pathway to social inclusion through services for millions of people, address the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and embrace “double materiality” along the way.
