Outlooks – Page 17
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White papersChina: Is this the “whatever it takes” moment?
China’s recent stimulus measures, including monetary easing and a massive fiscal pledge, have sparked a sharp rally in equities, particularly in real estate and consumer staples. While market sentiment has improved, the long-term impact will hinge on the actual scale and execution of fiscal policy. Investors are cautiously optimistic, but much depends on how effectively China targets its property sector and broader economy.
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White papersSeptember jobs report: Not as weak as once thought?
The September jobs report showed a 254,000 monthly job gain, blowing all estimates out of the water. Not only does it suggest that the U.S. labor market is on a stronger footing than most believed, but it also suggests that the Fed does not need to maintain such an aggressive pace of rate cuts. Market expectations for a 50bps cut in November have rightfully plunged, and a 25bps reduction is now the clear market consensus.
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White papersHow does an aging population impact real estate?
Globally, life expectancy is increasing, creating a growing demographic of senior citizens (those aged 65 and over). At the same time, working age populations (those aged between 15 and 64) are stalling in some countries, and even expected to decrease.
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White papersChina’s recovery, is it for real this time?
Beijing has finally moved to fight the rising risk of a debt-deflation spiral with aggressive stimulus measures. Markets are taking this pivot seriously: Chinese stocks have rallied sharply and could have further to run in the short term. What is needed to sustain the recovery in the economy and asset markets is a real sense of conviction – among consumers and investors.
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White papersCLOs Go Mainstream
Rates are on their way down—so why are investors lining up for these floating-rate securities?
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White papersFollowing a bumper 2024, what’s next for the US economy and market?
The US has dominated financial markets this year. The economy has been stronger than expected with GDP growth running at an annualised rate of 3.0% in the second quarter (Q2).
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White papersDo elections really matter to investors?
Investors seek to track the evolution of the economic fundamentals that serve to anchor asset returns over a long-term time horizon. We look at what they are.
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White papersWhy institutional investors are turning to data centres
The data centre industry is experiencing explosive demand growth driven by expanding use of technology and structural shifts in how data is consumed.
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White papersHow emotional bias could drive exploitable market inefficiencies
The propensity for emotion and bias to influence decision making is a common individual experience. But do behavioural traits really drive markets too? Here, we analyse recent real world examples that suggests emotional responses are likely to be a factor behind market ‘episodes’.
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White papersREITs: On course for a recovery
The onset of the Federal Reserve’s rate cutting cycle is expected to serve as a major catalyst for REITs, boosting valuations as discount rates fall. Historically, REITs have outperformed during similar economic conditions, and sectors with resilient, long-term cash flows are attractive today. Investors seeking real estate exposure should see this period as a compelling opportunity to benefit from REITs’ liquidity and potential for cap rate compression.
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White papersRate Expectations
Much has been written about the pace of likely interest rate cuts from the U.S. Federal Reserve. We continue to expect a total of 75 bps by year end, with a first cut of 25 bps at the next Federal Open Market Committee Meeting on September 17-18.
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White papersBoeing bonds bound to bounce back?
Boeing is an iconic name. It enjoys high levels of political support in the government of its single largest customer, the United States. It produces the president-carrying Air Force One, makes the ubiquitous commercial airliners, influences space exploration, produces military equipment and maintains significant nuclear capabilities for the US. This relationship is a substantial pillar of support for the credit.
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White papersIPM monthly blog – Edition September 2024: Our monthly insights into private markets
The last two years have been testing for real estate investors. But there are now numerous signs of recovery taking place in selected market areas. Transaction volumes are flattening and, in the UK, where valuations tend to be adjusted relatively quickly to transaction market data, investment volumes are already rising anew. The marginal improvement indicates that we have passed the bottom of this cycle in terms of investment volume.
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White papersChurchill 2023 Sustainability Report
We are thrilled to present Churchill’s second annual Sustainability Report. Reflecting on the accomplishments of the past year, I am grateful for the many partnerships we’ve built. From collaborating with investors to refine our practices to engaging with organizations that provide invaluable insights to our investment teams, we are invigorated by the progress we have made together towards our sustainability goals.
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White papersCan the demand for critical minerals be met responsibly?
Decarbonising the economy requires a significant scaling up of green technologies such as electric vehicles (EVs), solar photovoltaics, wind turbines and grid-scale battery storage. All of which require significant mineral inputs. A deficit of these “critical minerals” – such as cobalt, copper, lithium, rare earth elements, graphite and nickel – raises supply risks that could constrain the pace and scale of the energy transition.
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White papersNext-generation private equity: The art of partnership
Next-generation managers are re-energising the private equity industry from the point of view of both approach and performance.
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White papersU.S. Federal Reserve policy decision: securing a soft landing
The Fed’s aggressive 50 basis point rate cut, while unconventional, reflects a proactive approach to stave off any potential economic weakness. Despite associations of such large cuts with crises, today’s economic backdrop remains resilient. With recession risks receding and a favorable historical pattern during non-recessionary rate cutting periods, investors have reasons to remain cautiously optimistic about the market’s near-term outlook.
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White papersAll to Play for in 2024
In this PDI Q&A, Bryan High discusses the trends and dynamics likely to shape direct lending through the remainder of 2024.
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White papersHigh Yield: Scaling the Maturity Wall
The maturity wall facing high yield bond issuers has garnered much attention. But given the market’s short duration profile, lower prices and higher-quality relative to history, the reality facing issuers is less daunting.
