Outlooks
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White papersGlobalisation isn’t dead. It’s changing.
The latest round of tariffs launched by the US government in early April prompted a wave of criticism from world leaders, including some who say globalisation is now dead. As a global investor for over four decades, I respectfully disagree. Globalisation isn’t dead. It is, however, changing in a significant way.
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White papersDeglobalization. What’s Next?
We believe the Post-World War II, U.S.-dominated world order of globalization is quickly coming to an end. Between the possibilities of diversification, division, and disengagement that we discussed in our piece on globalization several years ago, the Trump Administration appears to be pursuing a disengagement strategy. Everyone— domestic players in the U.S. included—is now working to accommodate a less globally engaged U.S.
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White papersWorld markets review — First quarter 2025
Returns for US equities diverged from regional markets as investors weighed the implications of a potential trade war, waning consumer confidence and high valuations in the technology sector. After two years in a row of 20%-plus gains, US stocks entered correction territory, falling roughly 10% in mid-March before recovering some of the losses. European stocks rallied as investors rotated into value-oriented areas of the market.
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White papersFive charts that put market volatility in perspective
President Trump’s tariffs have put market volatility back in the spotlight.
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White papersQuarterly Equities and Multi Asset Outlook – Q2 2025
Investors started this year thinking that corporates and governments were better prepared for a Trump 2.0 trade war. That proved not to be the case, so how should they be positioning amid the turmoil? Find out more in the latest Quarterly Equities and Multi Asset Outlook: ‘Dispersing the herd’.
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White papersDiversification in times of uncertain markets
Over the past week, markets have experienced extreme uncertainty caused by US policy gyrations on tariffs. This uncertainty has started to weigh on US assets, including the dollar and US Treasuries. Despite the 90-day pause announced on 9 April, the US average tariff rate remains at a 100-year high, with rising US tariffs on China triggering retaliation from the latter.
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White papersThe world turned upside down - Global Market Perspectives, 2Q 2025
Our quarterly investment outlook highlights the themes and investment implications for the period ahead.
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White papersQuick take on Trump’s tariff pause
President Trump has announced a 90-day truce with most of the international community, reducing tariffs to the baseline rate of 10% for the European Union (EU), Asia (excluding China) and South Africa, among other countries. This is a positive development. Most other major economies, including Latin America, Canada, the UK, and Australia, were already subject to baseline rate tariffs or lower.
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White papersEquity Market Outlook 2Q 2025
While surging tariffs and a hard sell-off have sown uncertainty, we expect negotiations to bring some relief on initial tariff proposals, and that sharply slower growth seems more likely than a U.S. recession. We also believe stimulus in Europe and China may rejuvenate global industrial activity (albeit at a slower pace), and recommend styles, sectors and regions that are most geared to it.
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White papersAdapting to Uncertainty
In an era characterized by complexity and unpredictability, we believe it is crucial to enhance portfolio resilience for the long term.
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White papersTrump’s tariffs – A paradigm change
In the absence of major revisions, the latest US import tariffs are a stagflationary shock for the US economy, potentially derailing growth and raising recession risks. A major risk-off move is now underway as financial markets move to a completely new interpretation of ‘US exceptionalism’.
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White papersGold at a time of tariffs and trade war
“Gold prices should remain supported by demand for safe-haven assets, amid a threat of trade war, tariffs and their economic fallout.”
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White papersTrump tariffs roil markets. What’s next?
If investors were looking for a reason to sell US stocks, they found it in President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs. Following several weeks of volatility sparked by on-again off-again tariffs, Trump’s 2 April announcement of higher-than-expected levies against virtually every US trading partner sent shockwaves through global financial markets.
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White papersExpert perspectives: ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs unpacked
‘Liberation Day’ tariffs have intensified stagflation fears, driving risk-off sentiment across markets. Investors are shifting toward quality, selectivity, and liquidity, while real estate shows relative resilience amid broader uncertainty.
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White papersHow artificial intelligence is reshaping financial services
AI is helping enhance efficiency, reduce costs and improve decision-making
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White papersCoping with market downturns
The 2025 market landscape has been shaken by aggressive U.S. trade policies, sparking global retaliation and heightened fears of recession. Despite sharp volatility and a dip in investor confidence, historical trends show that disciplined, diversified investors are often rewarded over the long run. Staying invested through downturns remains a proven strategy to capture the powerful recoveries that typically follow.
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White papersWhat Raising the Trade Drawbridge Means for the World Economy
Trade wars threaten longstanding trade partnerships and could weigh on the global economy.
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White papersThe Endowment Model Reimagined
The endowment model defined the “art” of portfolio management, but now it needs to adopt the latest “science.”
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White papersMaking America’s Chip Fabs Great Again
As national security threats mount, the U.S. aims to revive production of complex computer chips, creating potential opportunities all along the semi supply chain.
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White papersMarket Valuation of Climate Patents: What are the Most Valuable Innovations?
This paper analyzes the market valuation of climate innovations through a detailed examination of patent data. We explore the relationship between Tobin’s Q —a measure of firm valuation— and the stock of patents across various climate technology categories.
