Outlooks
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White papers
Q4 2024 Outlooks: Implications of Rate Cuts, Geopolitics, and Economic Uncertainty
In delivering on expectations for a policy pivot as the summer came to a close, the Federal Reserve joined its global peers in kicking off a new rate-cut cycle at a time when global economies are experiencing uneven growth and an uncertain path ahead. Meanwhile, anxieties have seemingly intensified with US elections in the fall, war in the Middle East, and persistent tensions between global powers, all of which place geopolitics right in the middle of the investment outlook.
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White papers
Part II: Resilient Investing Amid Geopolitical Uncertainty
In an increasingly uncertain environment, PGIM surveyed investors across the US, Europe, Asia-Pacific and Middle East to uncover how geopolitical risks are changing the way institutions are constructing their portfolios and approaching risk management. The results shed light on the risks that investors fear most, as well as the actions they are taking to either mitigate the potential fallout or capitalize on opportunities that emerge.
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White papers
Five areas of uncertainty we are monitoring
Remaining cautiously bullish as market grinds into fourth quarter.
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White papers
SDG Engagement Equity Q3 2024 case study: Varun Beverages
Indian multinational Varun Beverages is one of the largest bottlers of PepsiCo’s drinks in the world. It has posted revenue growth of more than 20% per annum over the past decade and its solid track record supports expectations of further success.
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White papers
The hidden environmental cost of our digital lives
As our digital world expands, so does its impact on our planet. Artificial Intelligence (AI) and other new technologies are powered by data centres using millions of litres of water, meaning the environmental cost of technology is significant. But there’s hope – innovative solutions like rainwater harvesting and renewable energy investments are making a difference. Discover how companies like Microsoft are leading the charge towards a more sustainable future…
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White papers
Obesity drugs: a lifeline for global healthcare systems
The global population is expanding and at the same time, life expectancy is increasing. Chronic diseases are on the rise and the threat of infectious diseases is constantly evolving. All of this is set to place a massive strain on already-stretched healthcare systems.
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White papers
Cross Asset Investment Strategy - October 2024
Topic of the Month - Draghi’s report: a call to action for Europe’s competitiveness
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White papers
Earnings season: Starting from a place of resilience
The third quarter earnings season has begun, and while expectations have tempered since earlier in the year, the corporate sector remains strong, with ample buffers given elevated profit margins and strong balance sheets. With the help of Fed cuts, they are well-positioned to navigate the period ahead even as the economy weakens.
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White papers
Macroeconomic and financial market forecasts - October 2024
Macroeconomic forecasts as of 4 October
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White papers
Draghi’s report: a call to action for Europe’s competitiveness
Draghi’s report on Europe’s declining competitiveness offers a comprehensive analysis, but many of its findings are not new. Yet, Draghi’s stature may lend urgency to these recommendations. Those requiring EU funding or treaty changes are likely to encounter substantial political resistance. The report provides a clear direction of travel and some of the reforms that do not require new funding (e.g., regulatory changes) could move the dial sooner.
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White papers
Standing proud! 2024 GRESB Real Estate and Infrastructure Assessments
UBS Asset Management, Real Estate & Private Markets’ (REPM) sustainability efforts continue to build momentum with another set of strong results in the 2024 GRESB Real Estate and Infrastructure Assessments.
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White papers
Rates Relief or Slowdown Uncertainty?
Our outlook for lower rates and a soft landing favors U.S. small caps, and we are watching China’s new stimulus closely for its impact on global cyclical assets.
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White papers
The climate risk ‘hot potato’– which sector will be left with burnt fingers?
Does anyone remember Uruk, the ultra-modern city nestled amid the planet’s most fertile farmland? What about Skara Brae, the beachfront town with state-of-the-art homes, beautiful ocean views and mild weather? Nope? Well, 5,000 years ago both communities were among the world’s more desirable places to live, but the shifting climate changed things and these settlements were consigned to history.
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White papers
China: Is this the “whatever it takes” moment?
China’s recent stimulus measures, including monetary easing and a massive fiscal pledge, have sparked a sharp rally in equities, particularly in real estate and consumer staples. While market sentiment has improved, the long-term impact will hinge on the actual scale and execution of fiscal policy. Investors are cautiously optimistic, but much depends on how effectively China targets its property sector and broader economy.
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White papers
September jobs report: Not as weak as once thought?
The September jobs report showed a 254,000 monthly job gain, blowing all estimates out of the water. Not only does it suggest that the U.S. labor market is on a stronger footing than most believed, but it also suggests that the Fed does not need to maintain such an aggressive pace of rate cuts. Market expectations for a 50bps cut in November have rightfully plunged, and a 25bps reduction is now the clear market consensus.
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White papers
China’s recovery, is it for real this time?
Beijing has finally moved to fight the rising risk of a debt-deflation spiral with aggressive stimulus measures. Markets are taking this pivot seriously: Chinese stocks have rallied sharply and could have further to run in the short term. What is needed to sustain the recovery in the economy and asset markets is a real sense of conviction – among consumers and investors.
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White papers
CLOs Go Mainstream
Rates are on their way down—so why are investors lining up for these floating-rate securities?
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White papers
Quick Thoughts: US election update—uncertainty reigns
With less than five weeks to the November 5 polling date, the US presidential as well as Senate and House majority outcomes remain too close to call. Franklin Templeton Institute’s Stephen Dover believes that a divided government in Washington, DC, with no single party controlling the White House, Senate and House of Representatives is likely. He discusses the possible effects of the elections on the markets and offers investment conclusions.
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White papers
Do elections really matter to investors?
Investors seek to track the evolution of the economic fundamentals that serve to anchor asset returns over a long-term time horizon. We look at what they are.
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White papers
On the ground in Turkey – where down means up
Will Scholes, co-fund manager of the Premier Miton Emerging Markets Sustainable Fund, pens a postcard from Turkey and argues “there is no substitute for on the ground research”.