Outlooks
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White papersMid-Year Outlook 2024 It’s all about confidence
Restrictive monetary policies and fading fiscal expansion are curbing growth and inflation in major economies. Recessions look unlikely but central banks are starting on a new cycle of rate cuts at a time of divergent growth rates, sticky price pressures, constrained fiscal policy and rising geopolitical risks. Despite the uncertain outlook, markets in some regions are priced for the best outcome. We therefore favour asset allocations that can withstand different scenarios.
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White papersInvestment outlook
At the midpoint of 2024, we are focused on a number of risks posed by fissures and fault lines in the economic terrain — and the need to navigate them successfully. Weakening global growth, still-sticky inflation, diverging monetary policy around the globe and growing political uncertainty all add to the uncertain footing. How might investors find their away around these cracks? In our view, the following portfolio themes point in the right direction.
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White papersMegatrends: Transformative technology
Artificial intelligence (AI), specifically generative AI (GenAI), is poised to affect virtually every sector of the global economy and transform the workforce.
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White papersOn My Mind: Let’s spend lots of money! US elections and fiscal prospects
In this “On My Mind,” I want to focus on the US fiscal outlook, its relationship to inflation, and the implications for interest rates and bond yields. Let’s start with a snapshot of the US federal govern ment’s fiscal deficit for the past three decades. For the first half of this period, fiscal policy looked fairly prudent, and the deficit averaged slightly more than 1% of gross domestic product (GDP).
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White papersFive-year investment outlook
Our analysis shows the dispersion of returns across domestic equity and bond markets will decline over the next five years. This suggests investors should consider investing across sectoral lines and allocate more of their capital to corporate bonds.
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White papersUK election delivers no-drama outcome
Britain’s Labour Party returned to power for the first time in 14 years after winning a large majority in parliamentary elections that were held on July 4. Labour, led by Keir Starmer, won more than 410 of the 650 seats in the House of Commons, while the Conservative Party suffered its worst-ever performance.
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White papersPolicy and Politics
The first-quarter inflation bump is behind us, but the risks of a monetary policy error and electoral shocks have risen. While we believe the fundamental economic outlook for the next 12 – 18 months remains positive for risky assets, the potential for monetary policy errors and election-related volatility overshadows the coming months. These risks prevent the AAC from taking a more overweight view on risky assets, and keep us focused on quality assets and portfolio balance.
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White papersEquity Outlook: Making Way for the Magnificent Others
Despite narrow market concentration, we see opportunities in high-quality stocks that haven’t yet been rewarded. Global stocks posted healthy gains in the first half of 2024, although second-quarter performance moderated from the previous quarter’s breakneck pace. With inflation still sticky and equity returns concentrated, the time may be right for investors to broaden their horizons.
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White papersIn conversation with Fabiana Fedeli
An ‘optimist who plans for the worst,’ Fabiana was named one of the 100 Most Influential Women in Finance in 2022 by Financial News. Here, M&G Investments’ Chief Investment Officer for Equities, Multi-Asset and Sustainability, tells Antonia Oprita about her love for markets and why she thinks of herself as a ‘data junkie’.
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White papersHow can human-robot interactions benefit financial decision-making?
“Our research showed that after using the robo-advisor, individuals were more inclined to invest in equities and follow the robo’s recommendations in rebalancing their portfolios towards their target allocations. These enhanced choices led to higher risk-adjusted returns.”
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White papersSDG Engagement Equity Q2 2024 case study: Eagle Materials
Our Q2 case study looks at leading US cement manufacturer Eagle Materials. At the present time, the manufacture of cement accounts for 1.25% of CO2 emissions in the US. But as we outline, Eagle is well positioned to drive change and is implementing measures that should support decarbonisation in the industry.
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White papersIPM monthly blog – Edition June 2024: Our monthly insights into private markets
Commencement of interest rate cuts to support market
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White papers2024 midyear outlook: Widening cracks in the investment landscape
“Step on a crack, break your mother’s back” conjures up images of children playfully jumping over gaps between sidewalk squares. As grownups, we can indulge such youthful superstitions as harmless. As investors, however, we recognize the very real risks posed by fissures and fault lines in the economic terrain — and the need to navigate them successfully. This is the challenge we’re facing midway through 2024.
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White papersBest ideas across asset classes
A combination of global economic resilience and strong corporate earnings has propelled equity markets higher over the first half of 2024. This upward move has been accompanied by less favorable valuations, which (combined with uncertainty surrounding central bank policy) leads us to stick with a neutral view toward global stock markets.
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White papers2024 midyear outlook: Portfolio construction themes
Navigating today’s investment landscape has become tougher, as widening cracks in the economy present tripping hazards or cause investors to stray from their long-term path.
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White papersArtificial intelligence and investing: it’s all about the data
Teaching machines how to ‘think’ has been a tantalizing goal since the early days of computing, and recent advances in generative AI have brought us closer to achieving it. However, whether AI-generated ‘buy/sell/hold’ signals can be used for investing is partly a question of whether the value outweighs the risk.
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White papersToday’s healthcare treatment, tomorrow’s healthcare innovation
While treatments for obesity have dominated the healthcare investment narrative over the past 18 months, they are by no means the only secular growth story. We see the life sciences industry as well positioned to benefit from structural trends.
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White papersPrompting AI: Can Better Conversations Drive Better Investment Research?
A richer dialogue between human experts and large language models may improve outcomes.
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White papersInvestment Perspectives Mid-Year 2024 Outlook: Descent from the peak
Where could investors discover opportunities as we approach the descent from peak interest rates? At the mid-way point of 2024, our CIOs and investment teams across Equities and Multi-Asset, Fixed Income and Private Markets bring you their views on the current investment landscape, look beyond the ‘noise’ and map the potential routes for success amid heightened volatility.
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White papersMidyear Outlook 2024: the new reality of investing
2024 so far has been a year of diverging economies, equity market highs and election fever – with far more to come.
