Outlooks
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White papersEurope in focus amidst fiscal boost
“President Trump’s approach to trade and global alliances may be a wake up call for Europe. The region is signalling a clear and a historical shift, which will require target measures to boost growth efficiently.”
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White papersThe emergence of Gen-Z
The ageing global population throws up a number of social, economic and healthcare implications. However, another cohort is emerging into a dominant economic force in EM.
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White papersSwap spreads: analysis, challenges and outlook
Swap spreads, key indicators of liquidity stress and risk aversion, play a crucial role for insurers. Beyond measuring price differentials between sovereign and corporate bonds, they directly influence hedging decisions, asset-liability management (ALM) strategies and insurer returns under Solvency II.
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White papersMind the underinvestment gap: Shaping the UK’s future through private markets investment
With decades of underinvestment in UK real assets – from housing to healthcare and infrastructure – investors can tap into the opportunity to drive regeneration and growth. Taking a holistic approach to local investment could maximise social outcomes and create value for communities and investors.
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White papersArtificial intelligence and investing: it’s all about the data
Teaching machines how to “think” has been a tantalizing goal since the early days of computing, and recent advances in generative AI have brought us closer to achieving it. However, whether AI-generated “buy/sell/hold” signals can be used for investing is partly a question of whether the value outweighs the risk. One only needs to read a few passages of AI-written content to notice that it is a simulacrum.
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White papersTopic Modeling with AI Tools
We present a robust topic modeling framework that mitigates overfitting while capturing the evolving nature of discourse. Our approach proposes a dynamic, temporal network-based model that adapts to emerging topics while maintaining semantic stability through alignment with predefined themes.
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White papersA New Era of Globalization: Shifting Opportunities in a Dual-Track World
In national elections around the world, one theme dominated almost universally: dissatisfaction with a global economy that favors others over us. On the surface, swirling headlines around tariffs and fracturing supply chains would suggest the high-speed globalization train has been utterly derailed. However, the world has entered a new era where globalization has essentially splintered into two distinct tracks.
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White papersNavigating market volatility amid US tariffs and policy uncertainty
Amid uncertainty in equities and credit markets, we remain focused on long-term investment fundamentals and building portfolios to weather the storm and deliver for clients.
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White papersNavigating opportunities in a higher-for-longer market
Today’s landscape offers attractive income opportunities, with elevated real rates and resilient fundamentals supporting diversified sources like dividend equities, real assets, and high-quality bonds.
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White papersThe diverse economic impacts of artificial intelligence
AI uptake by companies and households appears to have increased significantly in recent months. This is one of the factors that will determine whether AI will increase productivity gains significantly. As we will show in this section, a lot of new data and statistics have been published over the past quarters, and related knowledge has improved.
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White papersCross Asset Investment Strategy - March 2025
Topic of the month: A step forward for Europe
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White papersA step forward for Europe
From sluggish to strong: Germany poised to support Europe’s growth
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White papersScenarios, risks and macroeconomic forecasts - March 2025
Main and alternative scenarios as of 20th February 2025
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White papersSteering through the fog of policy uncertainty
Why a short-term economic soft patch should give way to a strong second half for markets.
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White papersRethinking the Stock-Bond Correlation
The correlation between stocks and bonds has been a prominent topic of discussion over the past 5 years, particularly due to the resurgence of inflation risks. Many portfolio managers, who had long assumed that the stock-bond correlation was negative, were surprised when this relationship turned strongly positive in the aftermath of the COVID-19 crisis. This article examines the stock-bond correlation from both a theoretical and an empirical perspective.
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White papersMonthly Market Viewpoint – Not so exceptional after all
Declines in US equities over the last month were primarily a function of disappointing economic data and a partial ‘Magnificent-7 unwind’ rather than tariffs. Lately, it has been self-reinforced panic selling, which we expect will be reversed. We remain optimistic on the medium-term outlook.
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White papersFebruary CPI report: Not yet in the clear
The February CPI print was lower than expected, with the monthly increase in both headline and core CPI the smallest since late 2024, bringing annual numbers down to 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. The inflation report will likely deliver a temporary reprieve for markets that have been recently focused on increased stagflation risks.
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White papersWomen and Investment
Men and women differ in their investment decisions. In this article, we review the main differences in risk aversion, portfolio choices, venture capital investment, and socially responsible investing, as well as their causes: genetic and social factors, financial education, advice, etc. Gender differences raise important questions for public policy, particularly regarding women’s financial adequacy in retirement. Recent developments in Artificial Intelligence and the associated new financial services (fintechs and robo-advisors) can now offer promising tools to reduce inequalities.
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White papersLocked ‘n’ loaded and ready to fire: first take on China’s National People’s Congress (NPC)
Premier Li Qiang kicked off the annual meetings of the National People’s Congress (NPC) with the government’s Work Report, marking the nation’s biggest political event of the year. Besides a busy calendar of political decision-making, the NPC is also closely watched by markets as Beijing sets the course for the economy and macro policies for the remainder of 2025.
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White papersFebruary jobs report: A sanguine number… for now
The February jobs report showed a 151,000-worker increase in payrolls, broadly in line with consensus expectations, defying fears of significant cracks in the labor market. Yet, while the worst fears were not met, the report did confirm that the labor market is cooling. Furthermore, with no shortage of headwinds confronting the U.S. economy, including federal government layoffs, public spending cuts, and tariff uncertainty-related inertia, the softening trend will likely persist and potentially deepen in the coming months.
