2025 got off to a dramatic start with an unexpected jump in bond yields. What has been driving this move and do we expect it to continue? Swaha Pattanaik and Monica Defend, Head of Amundi Investment Institute, explain what’s been happening in the US and UK and explore what these mean for our growth and interest rate forecasts.
Recent inflation numbers are in line with a short pause in the path towards the Fed’s target, yet bond yields have moved sharply higher since the Fed’s big cut. Medium-term inflation expectations – including FOMC member expectations – have moved higher (see chart), but most of the increase in ten-year yields since the election reflects a rise in real rates.
American exceptionalism; the Mag 7, or are wider factors at play? In this edition of Talking Markets, Hugh Greives, Fund Manager of the Premier Miton US Opportunities Fund shares his outlook for 2025, discussing future Fed rate cuts, Trump’s presidency, the hype and reality of AI, and what all of this could mean for US equity investors.