Consumer spending makes up over two-thirds of U.S. GDP. We expect 2026 consumption to be stable and contribute to solid GDP growth but remain concerned about higher inequality and the growing share of spending coming from high-income consumers.
Since the start of the year, some of the key convictions that we have highlighted in our outlook have been playing out and some trends have accelerated. We are witnessing a regime shift characterised by heightened policy uncertainty and a distinct break in the international order — key themes highlighted at the Davos World Economic Forum and confirmed at the Munich Security Conference.