The bond market is well positioned to provide investors with attractive income potential and relative stability, should equity markets swing lower in the second half of the year. Given slowing US economic growth and cooling inflation, bonds should offer a smoother ride for investors amid high uncertainty over US trade and immigration policies, rising debt levels and worsening conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East.
We are now firmly in the riskier, messier, more factious world we predicted. While the US president is not the cause of the geopolitical shifts underway over the last few years, his administration is accelerating some drivers. For example, tariffs are intensifying economic friction, while the reduction of US commitments to Europe’s security and ambitions in space are contributing to a new arms race. The US, under Trump, also emerged as an additional disruptor.