Latest Manager Research – Page 303
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White papersTrajectory Monitoring in Portfolio Management and Issuer Intentionality Scoring
2°C alignment has become a major issue for climate-aware portfolio management. There are sophisticated initiatives aiming to predict corporate emission intensities from 2030 up to 2100.
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White papersEuropean high yield credit update
Credit markets stabilised in April; however, a wide dispersion of spreads means active stock-pickers can still find potential opportunities.
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White papersFlattening the credit curve: A closer look at short-dated assets
There are few areas of life that COVID-19 hasn’t impacted and credit markets are no exception. Mhammed Belfaida explains how the flattening of credit curves has revealed a surprising anomaly.
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White papersCOVID-19: Is there still a premium for illiquidity?
One of the immediate consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic has been a marked reduction in investors’ risk appetite. But will their appetite for the illiquidity premium in private markets also disappear? Laurence Monnier explores.
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White papersAEW Research Flash Report - May 2020
In this fourth update since the onset of the Covid-19 crisis, we update and combine some of our initial thoughts about the impact of the lockdowns and expected restrictions going forward.
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White papersGlobal Real Estate: Cyclical & Structural Impacts of COVID-19
As investors navigate global real estate markets in the months and years ahead, understanding the interplay between near-term cyclical weakness and long-term structural trends will be key
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White papersMay Macro Dashboard
While supply is coming back, the demand recovery remains unclear. The damage in Europe is showing up larger than expected a month ago, but high frequency data showed some signs of improvement in May. China’s economy is on the road to recovery, though the path differs by sector.
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White papersCommercial Mortgage Loans: An Alternative Asset in LDI Portfolios?
Most public and private defined benefit pension plan sponsors aim to design an effective liability driven investment (LDI) strategy that balances several objectives – achieving the desired funded status for the plan, managing return-seeking assets in the portfolio against relevant benchmarks, and effectively de-risking and hedging future liabilities. LDI portfolios traditionally rely on a combination of Treasury securities and long and medium duration corporate bonds as hedging instruments.
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White papersGlobal Outlook - Real Estate During a Crisis
The outbreak of COVID-19 has quickly translated into a severe shock for the global economy and real estate markets. Near-term indicators of performance have turned sharply downward, and the situation is fast-moving.
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White papersWhy ESG Is Outperforming The S&P 500
Over the past year, the S&P 500 ESG Index exhibited returns nearly 3% above the benchmark S&P 500. This is impressive given the objective of the ESG Index is not to outperform the benchmark. Instead, it can offer a sustainable alternative to the broad-based S&P 500, with similar risk and return, while at the same time achieving a boost in S&P Dow Jones Indexes ESG Score performance.
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White papersEM Short-dated Debt: A Diamond in the Rough?
COVID-19 and lower oil prices have led to indiscriminate selling across EM corporate debt, creating a potentially compelling opportunity in the shorter-dated, higher-yielding segment of the market.
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White papersCoronavirus – Weekly update – 27 May 2020
Exits from lockdown proceed with no major upsets / Stock markets remain cautiously positive / For now the ‘wall of money’ from central banks has quashed volatility.
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White papersIn the wake of first-quarter reporting season, the consensus is probably still too optimistic
At -12% for the S&P 500 in the US and -35% for the Stoxx 600 in Europe, first-quarter results were hit hard by the pandemic, even though it had hardly begun by the end of the quarter. It is therefore a safe bet that results will be even worse in the second quarter but also that they will bottom out for the year. Even so, the consensus still looks far off the mark for both second-quarter results and for 2020-2021. Consequently, the positive impact from reopening the economy already appears to be priced in by far.
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White papersMarkets scenarios & risks – June 2020
We maintain the overall pandemic narrative confirming the probabilities, assigned to the base and alternative scenarios.
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White papersMacroeconomic picture – June 2020
The coronavirus crisis has pushed the U.S. economy into a sharp downturn, with severe disruptions of businesses and mass layoffs. Unemployment has surged into double-digit territory (14.7%); confidence on both the consumer and business sides has plummeted; and consumer inflation has started to reflect the consequences of the lockdowns, with headline CPI falling to 0.3% YoY (1.5% prior). The timing and profile of the recovery are still highly uncertain, but we expect GDP to contract between 4.5% and 6.5% YoY, with inflation remaining significantly subdued, with significant risks of moving into negative territory during the year
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White papersThematics Views – June 2020
As part of their toolkit to support the economic recovery during the Covid-19 crisis, central banks could implement yield-curve control. Although appealing, the implementation and exit risks of such a policy counterbalance the benefits, particularly in the Eurozone. Moreover, the impact on financial markets could be significant since chained risk-free assets could temporarily leave risky assets unsettled.
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White papersIndia in 2020: Active Perspectives on India’s Evolution
In India 2020: A Vision for the New Millennium, A.P.J. Abdul Kalam and Y.S. Rajan detailed how India could become a developed country and one of the world’s four largest economies by 2020. Here, our team shares their thoughts about India’s potential.
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White papersWhy Have Chinese Stocks Held Up So Well?
China’s stock markets have been remarkably resilient. As the world’s second-largest economy emerged first from the virus-induced shock, corporate earnings downgrades were relatively contained while government stimulus was preserved for future use.
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White papersPreparing Chinese Holdings for Potential US Action
Tensions between the US and China are flaring up again, but tariffs probably aren’t on the table this time. With pressure mounting on Chinese stocks listed in the US, including those widely held in emerging-market portfolios, investors need to consider how to prepare for the mounting risks.
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