Every economist fetishises their chosen leading indicator for the US economy – be it the ISM manufacturing index, capacity utilisation rate or new home sales. We cannot overstate the dangers of this habit and prefer to base our analysis on nowcasting indicators. But if there is one indicator that represents a syncretism of the economy, it is the labour market. This week, Simply put applies an economic theory linking employment conditions to GDP growth to estimate US output for 2024.
”Expectations of a Fed pivot to cut rates likely drove the recent, sharp surge in gold. Now, geopolitical risks and concerns over lack of fiscal prudence from governments could support the demand for metals.”
The energy transition is a polarising US political issue. For the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), which in 2022 approved an estimated USD 670 billion to boost domestic clean-energy production and manufacturing, the November 2024 federal election will undoubtedly impact its future and the funding it provides.