Before the war in Iran erupted, markets were occupied with the likely impact of Trump’s appointment of a potentially dovish loyalist as the new Chair of the Federal Reserve (Fed). While this conversation has faded somewhat into the background, it is arguably as important as ever.
When I served as a United States diplomat, we often said that war is the failure of diplomacy. The inconclusiveness of initial negotiations in Islamabad underscores just how fragile diplomacy can be.